1.1200: EUR/USD Price Forecasts as pair struggles to extend gains above the level

1.1100 marks the area of recent lows for EUR/USD. The pair has rebounded but struggles to build on gains above 1.1200.
Despite support from Eurozone manufacturing figures, worries over France's debt continue to exert pressure.
Fragile bullish momentum suggests the recovery remains a correction on the technical charts.

1.1200 remains difficult for EURUSD to hold above. The Euro (EUR) nevertheless retains a firmer tone against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, supported by encouraging Eurozone factory activity figures and uncertainty over the US elections. The pair is caught between Friday's nearly 18-month lows just above 1.1100 and a concentration of resistance levels spanning 1.1255 to 1.1285.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Revised figures showing stronger Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index readings for October have given the Euro another lift. The currency had already benefited from investor unease over the outcome of Tuesday's US midterm elections.

Renewed attention to the fragile financial stability of some Eurozone members subsequently left EUR/USD steady. In an unscheduled ratings review, Fitch changed its outlook on French sovereign debt to negative from stable and indicated that another ratings review would follow by the end of February.
ING analyst Chris Turner comments, “Let’s see whether this unscheduled move puts much pressure on the OAT-Bund spread today,” adding that “ the news limits the potential for EUR/USD to rebound on softer energy prices.”

1.1255 - 1.1285: Immediate Resistance in EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Around 1.1220, EUR/USD retains a bearish short-term bias, although momentum gauges suggest selling pressure is losing strength. At 46.5, the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered from oversold territory without reaching the midline. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), meanwhile, is slightly positive. Together, these signals suggest the bearish trend is weakening rather than the underlying structure reversing.

Between 1.1256, the October 22 high, and 1.1285, the October 2 high, buyers are likely to encounter substantial resistance. Beyond that band, the next target spans the June lows at 1.1325 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1337.

A break below Friday's 1.1104 low would likely draw sellers towards the May 2025 lows near 1.1050, followed by the psychological 1.1000 area.

Today's Euro Performance

Against the Australian Dollar, the Euro recorded its strongest performance today. The table below sets out the Euro's (EUR) percentage moves against the major currencies listed.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.49%	-0.19%	0.21%	0.03%	0.40%	0.14%	-0.67%
EUR	0.49%		0.31%	0.69%	0.51%	0.88%	0.64%	-0.16%
GBP	0.19%	-0.31%		0.40%	0.21%	0.57%	0.33%	-0.46%
JPY	-0.21%	-0.69%	-0.40%		-0.18%	0.18%	-0.07%	-0.89%
CAD	-0.03%	-0.51%	-0.21%	0.18%		0.37%	0.11%	-0.67%
AUD	-0.40%	-0.88%	-0.57%	-0.18%	-0.37%		-0.24%	-1.04%
NZD	-0.14%	-0.64%	-0.33%	0.07%	-0.11%	0.24%		-0.79%
CHF	0.67%	0.16%	0.46%	0.89%	0.67%	1.04%	0.79%

Percentage movements between major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. Selecting the Euro on the left and following its row across to the US Dollar, for instance, gives the percentage change for EUR (base)/USD (quote) in the corresponding cell.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)