1.1115-1.1110 Support: EUR/USD Price Forecast as bears await a break with ECB still in focus

• A modest revival in USD demand brings renewed selling pressure to EUR/USD in Asian trading.
• Ahead of the ECB meeting, the Euro faces additional pressure from France’s fiscal problems and political deadlock.
• 1.1115-1.1110: A break below this zone should open the way to further declines within a bearish setup.

1.1110 was the area of the previous day’s low, the weakest since May 2025. Renewed US Dollar (USD) buying brings EUR/USD under fresh selling pressure during Thursday’s Asian session, halting its modest rebound from that area. Follow-through remains limited, however, as traders stay on the sidelines before a key central bank decision and important US economic releases.

An unchanged interest rate is expected when the European Central Bank (ECB) delivers its policy decision later today. The bank is also expected to retain a hawkish bias towards a possible 25-basis-point (bps) increase in December. Even so, worries over France’s mounting debt and political deadlock before next year’s election might keep the shared currency under pressure. By contrast, hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) and geopolitical uncertainty are restoring support for the USD. Together, these factors suggest that EUR/USD’s path of least resistance is still lower.

Technical signals also favour near-term downside, with spot prices trading beneath the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the -hour chart. At around 40.2, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) points to subdued upward momentum. That remains the case despite a slight improvement in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, whose line has edged into positive territory. The bearish outlook therefore remains intact. Sellers might nevertheless wait for a break beneath 1.1115-1.1110 before positioning for a continuation of the established downtrend seen over roughly the past two months.

Intraday fluctuations near 1.1140 are likely to draw traders’ attention for evidence of a developing base or a continuation of the bearish sequence. Any recovery attempt is more likely to meet initial resistance before the 1.1200 round number, followed by the 100-period EMA at 1.1215. Only sustained gains above that EMA would ease the prevailing downward pressure and create scope for a more constructive recovery.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

4-hour chart: EUR/USD