Dogecoin Price Forecast: ETF outflows and long unwinding heighten downside risk for DOGE

• $0.075 is where Dogecoin is holding on Friday, following a decline of over 5% the day before.
• Thursday brought $138,570 in outflows from DOGE-focused ETFs, their second consecutive day of withdrawals, pointing to weaker institutional demand.
• Heavy long liquidations accompanied a 5% drop in Open Interest over the past 24 hours, with derivatives figures pointing to a sell-side bias.

$0.0756 is Dogecoin’s (DOGE) price at press time on Friday. Further losses have stalled after a fall of over 5% the previous day. Demand for the meme coin is weakening among both institutional and retail investors. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen outflows exceeding $500,000 this week, while futures Open Interest is approaching $1 billion. Technical signals remain bearish for DOGE, suggesting roughly 10% downside potential towards the annual low of $0.0676.

$538,030 in Weekly ETF Outflows as Dogecoin Futures Face Selling Pressure

Pressure on Dogecoin spans both retail and institutional investors. According to SoSoValue, Thursday’s DOGE ETF outflows reached $138,570 after $399,460 the day before. The second consecutive day of withdrawals took this week’s cumulative outflow to $538,030. Such withdrawals typically suggest institutional investors are redeeming ETF shares, either to take profits or, in DOGE’s case, as holders face growing pressure to exit.

Among retail investors, caution over wider market uncertainty is reducing the notional value of outstanding positions. CoinGlass figures put DOGE futures Open Interest (OI) at $1.05 billion, down over 5% in the last 24 hours. A simultaneous decline in OI and the spot price typically signals a sell-side bias among traders, potentially sustaining corrections over the short to medium term.

Liquidations over the same period totalled $18.67 million, of which $12.81 million were long positions. These forced closures further underscore the growing bearish pressure on bullish positions.

$0.0677 Support in Focus as DOGE Risks Another Lower Low

 Above $0.0750, Dogecoin has stabilised at press time on Friday after rebounding from an earlier intraday low of $0.0722. Its near-term bias remains bearish, with the meme coin trading below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.0833 and the 200-day EMA at $0.0922.

Downside momentum is evident in both daily indicators. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 35, close to oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line sits beneath its signal line in negative territory.

A confirmed break below horizontal support at $0.0776, established by the June 6 low, leaves the previous swing low near $0.0677 as the next significant support. A breach there would point to a deeper correction. Using the Fibonacci retracement of the preceding upswing from $0.0676 to $0.01058, subsequent support could come at the 127.2% extension of $0.0598 and the 161.8% extension of $0.0513.

Any recovery first faces resistance around the $0.0776 horizontal level. Beyond that lies a resistance cluster comprising the 50-day EMA at $0.0833 and the 50% retracement at $0.0846. Reclaiming that cluster would be necessary to relieve immediate selling pressure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)