Fed hold leaves Crude Oil little changed as Iran considers Qatari deal

• $102.00 remains WTI's trading level. The Fed's decision to hold rates prompted little reaction, with prices up from below $100.00.
• 1.9 million barrels were drawn from US crude oil stocks, while gasoline inventories increased by 3.9 million.
• By Friday, Iran is expected to respond to Qatar's draft agreement to end the war.

$102.00 is roughly where WTI is trading. The Fed's statement drew little response, leaving prices below the pre-decision session peak of just under $103.00. For crude oil, the Qatari draft agreement to end the war carries more weight than the Fed's rate hold. Iran is expected to respond before the weekend.

Iran is reviewing the draft delivered by Qatari mediators, an official told Reuters on Wednesday. Separately, The Wall Street Journal reported that Washington has advised Gulf states to prepare for a possible resumption of the US campaign against Iran after the November 3 midterms. Both scenarios affect the volume of Gulf crude oil available to buyers, and therefore the supply against which WTI is priced.

US crude oil inventories, the physical barrels underpinning WTI, declined by 1.9 million in the week to October 23, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Gasoline inventories increased by 3.9 million. A 5.2% contraction in global supply is expected by the World Bank for 2026, the largest in over four decades excluding 2020. Also on Wednesday, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) informed customers that its pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz will start operating in early 2027.

Key Dates Ahead

No specific day has been set for Tehran's response to the Qatari draft, although it is expected before the weekend. The advance estimate of third-quarter US Gross Domestic Product (GDP), due Thursday at 12:30 GMT, offers the week's principal gauge of the US demand underpinning WTI.

At 18:30 GMT on Wednesday, Fed Chair Warsh will hold a press conference, his first public remarks since Fed officials entered their quiet period on October 17. A day earlier, he described inflation as uncomfortably high. His assessment of whether energy costs are feeding into other prices will bear on the prospect of a December rate increase, which would weigh on that same US demand.

WTI Technical Picture

From an opening level just below $100.00 on Wednesday, WTI advanced through most of the session. One of the larger moves came in the bars following the EIA release. Before the Fed decision, however, a single five-minute bar erased more than half of the gains made since that report. Intraday momentum has picked up from close to oversold territory.

WTI Spot: 5-Minute Chart