1.3400 surpassed as British Pound rises, with Oil slump overshadowing strong US PMI

0.26% higher: GBP/USD reaches 1.3423 on US Dollar weakness.
Over 5.60% lower: WTI slumps despite firmer US manufacturing activity.
4% rate expected from BoE as traders look ahead to NFP.

Sterling is up around 0.26% against the US Dollar on Monday. The currency starts the eleventh month of the year on a positive footing, while October’s ISM Manufacturing PMI release points to continued strength in the US economy. At the time of writing, GBP/USD stands at 1.3423.

GBP/USD higher before BoE decision as Oil slump drags on US Dollar

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

A rise from 54.5 to 55.5 took the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reading above the 54.6 forecast. Within the report, employment measures slipped by a tenth and Prices Paid eased to 75.2 from 77.9.

Although the figures favoured the US Dollar, fresh optimism over a diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran conflict drove energy prices lower. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Oil benchmark, lost more than 5.60% to $96.32. Crude’s positive correlation with the Greenback therefore put pressure on the currency. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures its value against six other currencies, eased 0.27% to 101.68.

According to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, US President Donald Trump backs a diplomatic resolution. The US mid-term elections would shape price action next, before attention turns to Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report.

With the Autumn Budget now absorbed, UK traders are preparing for the Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy announcement.

A 25 basis point rate increase to 4% by year-end is widely anticipated from the BoE. According to Prime Terminal, money markets had factored in 33 bps of increases in total.

A narrower US-UK interest rate differential would support the Pound. However, GBP/USD’s gains could be limited if the BoE leaves rates unchanged in December while the Fed delivers the increase priced in by market participants.

Economic calendar: US releases in focus

No UK releases are scheduled. In the US, attention turns to Factory Orders and the Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS).

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Near-term technical bias stays bullish

Chart Analysis GBP/USD — Daily chart: GBP/USD

At 1.3418 on the daily chart, GBP/USD remains above the latest composite simple moving average cluster near 1.3376, keeping its near-term bias bullish. Former trend-line resistance levels also sit below the pair. The breached descending resistance from 1.3653 now offers support around 1.3387, while an earlier resistance line linked to the 1.3869 high provides a floor near 1.3244. With the Relative Strength Index (14) close to 59, bullish momentum looks healthy rather than overstretched. This supports the view that buyers retain control, albeit with a gradual pace of gains.

Support first lies around the current 1.3418 price area. Below that, the trend line now acting as a floor at 1.3387 precedes the simple moving average cluster around 1.3376, followed by a deeper buffer at the previous breakout zone near 1.3244. For further gains, GBP/USD would encounter its next significant resistance at the breached rising support trend line near 1.3668. A firmer ceiling lies at the higher upward trend-line break around 1.3842, where sellers could seek to regain control.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Pound Sterling: Today's Currency Performance

Today's percentage moves in the British Pound (GBP) against the major currencies listed appear in the table below. The Japanese Yen was the currency against which the British Pound performed most strongly.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.37%	-0.21%	0.19%	-0.08%	0.19%	0.02%	-0.67%
EUR	0.37%		0.17%	0.55%	0.28%	0.56%	0.39%	-0.27%
GBP	0.21%	-0.17%		0.40%	0.12%	0.39%	0.22%	-0.43%
JPY	-0.19%	-0.55%	-0.40%		-0.26%	-0.00%	-0.17%	-0.86%
CAD	0.08%	-0.28%	-0.12%	0.26%		0.28%	0.09%	-0.56%
AUD	-0.19%	-0.56%	-0.39%	0.00%	-0.28%		-0.16%	-0.83%
NZD	-0.02%	-0.39%	-0.22%	0.17%	-0.09%	0.16%		-0.66%
CHF	0.67%	0.27%	0.43%	0.86%	0.56%	0.83%	0.66%

Percentage movements between major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. To read GBP (base)/USD (quote), for instance, choose the British Pound on the left and follow its row across to the US Dollar. The intersecting cell gives the pair’s percentage change.