$82,500 support under threat as Bitcoin’s Nasdaq correlation returns amid macro pressures

• Higher US inflation and selling in AI-related shares have coincided with a renewed strengthening of Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq.
• 60% of the growth in Bitcoin options open interest since Q3 2025 has come from IBIT options, which are challenging Deribit.
• $82,500 remains Bitcoin’s support line. With volatility returning, a sustained breach could open the way to the low $70,000 range.

$82,500 support is under pressure from macroeconomic risks. Bitcoin (BTC) is again showing a stronger correlation with the Nasdaq after falling alongside technology shares last week.

Bitcoin holds its range as Nasdaq correlation strengthens

Following last week’s price action, Bitcoin is once again moving in correlation with the technology-heavy Nasdaq, K33 Research noted in its Tuesday report.

A sharp sell-off in semiconductor shares and above-forecast US inflation accompanied the renewed correlation. Those developments helped drive the Nasdaq’s weakest weekly performance since the week of April 6, 2025. Over the past week, Bitcoin lost roughly 2%, while average daily spot trading volume slipped 1% to $2.5 billion.

K33 wrote: “Zooming out to a two-week horizon, BTC and Nasdaq returns sit at almost equal levels, pointing to a return to the relatively correlated regime seen from February to mid-August,”

At current levels, Bitcoin remains attractively priced, the report maintained. However, subdued participation raises the prospect of further choppy trading.

Options linked to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) were another focus of K33’s analysis. Their growing influence has increasingly challenged crypto exchange Deribit’s position as the leading venue for Bitcoin options.

Since the third quarter of 2025, Bitcoin options open interest has ranged from approximately 700,000 BTC to 1.1 million BTC. Around 60% of the increase has been attributable to IBIT.

Before the launch of IBIT options, Deribit accounted for 70% of open interest. Its share has since declined to 43%.

At 434,922 BTC, IBIT’s options open interest was equivalent to approximately 54% of its Bitcoin assets under management.

The report stated: “A ratio of 54% might seem extreme, but it is actually low compared to the largest ETFs on other assets,”

$82,500 support faces inflation risks

Bitcoin continues to defend $82,500 support despite its renewed Nasdaq correlation, according to Wintermute’s Tuesday market review. Upcoming macroeconomic events could trigger volatility, the firm said, potentially making this range difficult for Bitcoin to sustain.

Wintermute wrote: “The Fed next week, the midterms and Q3 earnings all land in the next few weeks, and we don’t think the range holds through them,”

A breakout would require a move through $87,000, according to the report. By contrast, a sustained breach of $82,500 could bring the low $70,000 range into view.

A less aggressive response from the Federal Reserve alongside strong third-quarter earnings could help Bitcoin rise above $87,000, Wintermute said. Higher yields and persistent weakness in technology shares, however, could weigh on the cryptocurrency.

Weakness was becoming more evident among altcoins, the report noted. Its broader altcoin cohort declined 5.69% over the week.

Wintermute added: “Altcoins are starting to feel heavy again, with the whole spectrum cohort selling off since topping around 14 days ago and down 5.69% on the week,”

As flows into altcoins weakened, capital increasingly shifted towards Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH), the firm observed. Only higher-quality large-cap tokens bucked that trend, drawing some longer-term investors as liquidity increased.

Even a Bitcoin rally might not enable altcoins to recover, Wintermute cautioned. A wider market sell-off, meanwhile, could expose them to additional losses.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin stands at $82,600, a gain of 0.8% over the past 24 hours.