$78,000 gives way: Bitcoin Price Forecast as BTC retreats amid ETF outflows

• Below $78,000, Bitcoin extends its retreat on Monday following a fourth consecutive weekly decline.
• $202.59 million in net outflows from US-listed BTC spot ETFs last week signals softer institutional demand.
• BTC’s rebound efforts remain constrained as the aftermath of last week’s Binance security breach depresses market sentiment.

Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below $78,000. The decline comes at the time of writing on Monday, following its fourth consecutive weekly loss. Outflows exceeding $202 million from spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) last week signal softer institutional demand. Meanwhile, the aftermath of last week’s Binance security breach continues to undermine traders’ sentiment and restrict the leading cryptocurrency’s recovery.

$202.59 Million in ETF Outflows Signals Softer BTC Demand

Net outflows from BTC spot ETFs reached $202.59 million last week, according to SoSoValue data. The withdrawals underscore fading investor appetite and signs of weakness in institutional demand for Bitcoin.

October also marked a reversal on the monthly chart: spot ETFs registered net outflows of $515.03 million, breaking a three-month run of net inflows.

A continuation or acceleration of these outflows could increase selling pressure on Bitcoin and deepen its correction.

$6.3 Billion Binance Breach Keeps Market Sentiment Under Pressure

An estimated $6.3 billion was stolen across ten blockchains in a major security breach at Binance last Thursday. Binance is the largest centralised cryptocurrency exchange.

Addressing the losses on Friday, the exchange said, “It will cover all losses from the Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU) fund and the company’s funds. User funds are safe.” Security checks were under way, Binance added, with withdrawals set to restart once the issue had been fully resolved.

As Binance resumed operations on Sunday, customers withdrew $3.64 billion, or 2.1% of the exchange’s assets, Reuters reported. The withdrawals followed the theft of billions from the platform by hackers linked by the FBI to North Korea. 

After an initial surge on Sunday, withdrawals were stabilising, according to Binance, while deposit volumes remained “substantial.” Binance added that 95% of the $6.3 billion in stolen assets had been recovered or secured.

The transfer of stolen funds nevertheless remains a concern. On Monday, Wu Blockchain confirmed that approximately $242 million had been moved by the attacker through Tron-related channels within two days. More than $3 billion in stolen assets on other blockchains remained largely untouched.

A QCP Capital analyst also said the attacker continues to hold the stolen Bitcoin and has begun dividing it into batches of 1,000 BTC and 100 BTC.

Investor caution persists given the scale of the breach, sizeable customer withdrawals and ongoing transfers of stolen funds. Together, these factors are holding back Bitcoin’s recovery.

2.25% Weekly Decline: Bitcoin Technical Momentum Fades

A 2.25% correction last week left Bitcoin with a fourth consecutive weekly decline since early October. At the time of writing on Monday, BTC remains under pressure at around $77,967 as the new week begins.

Further corrective moves could take BTC towards its 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $75,597. Should it close below that level on a weekly basis, losses could extend towards the 200-week SMA at $67,776.

At 51, the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits close to the neutral 50 mark, indicating cooling bullish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is still positive, but its bars are shrinking. Broader upside momentum therefore remains intact, although nearby resistance and the continuing pullback are eroding its strength.

A recovery, by contrast, could carry BTC towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $78,661, measured from the August 2024 low of $49,000 to the October 2025 record high of $126,199. If this level holds, the next potential objectives are the 50% retracement at $87,823 and then the 100-week SMA at $89,134.

Bitcoin retains a mildly constructive daily bias while trading above both its 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), near $77,821, and its 200-day EMA, around $76,466. 

The 50-day EMA, at approximately $80,287, nevertheless continues to cap the price and restrict immediate upside follow-through. Despite the supportive medium-term structure, bullish momentum remains fragile: the daily RSI is subdued near 38, while the MACD histogram remains negative below zero.

The first upside hurdle is the 50-day EMA at $80,287. Beyond it lies a more significant horizontal resistance level at $85,000. 

Nearby downside support comes from the 100-day EMA at $77,821, followed by the 200-day EMA around $76,466 as a deeper line of defence. Closing below the latter on a daily basis would undermine the current constructive bias and leave BTC exposed to a broader correction.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)