$1.28 billion in weekly ETF outflows: Bitcoin Price Forecast as BTC comes under pressure

• $75,222 is the approximate level of Bitcoin’s 50-week SMA. Bitcoin trades below it on Monday, having closed beneath it last week as losses extended to five consecutive weeks.
• $1.28 billion flowed out of US-listed spot ETFs on a net basis last week, the largest weekly withdrawal since the end of June.
• Risk assets including BTC came under pressure as stronger-than-forecast jobs figures bolstered expectations that the Fed could maintain higher interest rates for longer.

$75,222 marks Bitcoin’s 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA). Bitcoin (BTC) trades beneath that level on Monday and remains under pressure after five consecutive weekly declines. Last week’s $1.28 billion net withdrawal from spot BTC Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), the largest since late June, deepened bearish sentiment. Stronger-than-expected employment figures also weighed on Bitcoin by reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could leave interest rates higher for longer.

$1.28 billion ETF outflow is largest since late June

$1.28 billion left BTC spot ETFs on a net basis last week, according to SoSoValue. The withdrawal was the largest since the end of June and reflected softer institutional demand for Bitcoin. It also represented a second consecutive week of outflows, signalling weakening investor appetite. Should withdrawals persist and accelerate this week, BTC could face further pressure and a deeper price correction.

BTC faces macroeconomic constraints

Risk assets faced pressure from the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release. With US payroll growth exceeding expectations, the prospect of the Fed maintaining higher interest rates for longer gained support. Higher rates raise the opportunity cost of holding assets such as Bitcoin that generate no yield. They may also tighten financial conditions and curb demand for riskier investments. 

Traders now assign about an 80.5% probability to a December rate increase by the Fed, compared with 72.8% before the US employment report, according to the CME FedWatch tool chart. These macroeconomic conditions could remain a constraint on BTC’s recovery.

$75,222 support gives way: Bitcoin technical outlook

A 4.47% decline last week left Bitcoin below its 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $75,222 at the close, extending its run of weekly losses to five. Early this week, on Monday, BTC trades around $74,984 and remains beneath that moving average.

An extension of BTC’s correction could bring the 200-week SMA at $68,031 into view.

At 48, the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits below the neutral threshold of 50, pointing to waning bullish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is still positive, but its bars are shrinking. Together, these signals suggest that broader upward momentum persists but is weakening against nearby resistance and the continuing correction.

A rebound, by contrast, could lift BTC towards the 50-week SMA at $75,222. If the price closes above that level and holds it, the recovery could reach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $78,661. That retracement is drawn from the August 2024 low of $49,000 to the October 2025 record high of $126,199. 

Trading below the major Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) keeps BTC’s short-term daily outlook bearish. The closest ceiling is the 200-day EMA at $76,458. Above it, the 100-day EMA at $77,624 and the 50-day EMA at $79,305 add to the concentration of overhead resistance. 

An RSI reading near 36 also points to weaker daily momentum. With the MACD still negative and below zero, rebounds are likely to encounter selling as they approach those overhead levels.

Any advance would first face the 200-day EMA around $76,458, then the 100-day EMA at $77,624. A more substantial rebound would target the 50-day EMA at $79,307 before reaching the horizontal resistance area near $85,000.

With no nearby support mapped out, a break below current levels would suggest a move towards the psychological support zone around $70,000 before BTC stabilises.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)