One-month high: Australian Dollar bulls appear reluctant to push higher ahead of Aussie CPI, FOMC meeting

• 100-day SMA resistance remains a hurdle for AUD/USD.
• Lower US bond yields weigh on the USD, while RBA rate-rise expectations underpin spot prices.
• Australia’s CPI release, the Fed’s decision and major US economic data remain in focus.

AUD/USD holds above the psychological 0.7000 level in Asian trading. The pair has edged back from the one-month high reached earlier on Monday, but the pullback has lacked follow-through.

Growing expectations of another Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate rise at the forthcoming November policy meeting continue to lend some support to the Australian Dollar (AUD). Recent hawkish remarks from RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter reinforced those expectations. She said inflation was not yet fully under control and interest rates might need to rise further, given the risk that overseas price pressures could become entrenched in the economy.

By contrast, hopes of easing Middle East tensions and a further fall in US bond yields have left the US Dollar (USD) struggling to build on Friday’s modest rebound from a three-week low. These conditions could continue to support AUD/USD. Buyers nevertheless appear reluctant to commit ahead of Wednesday’s Australian consumer inflation figures and the conclusion of the closely watched two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting.

Thursday brings the Advance US Q3 GDP report and the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Traders will look to both releases for further guidance on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy outlook, which will shape USD moves. Until then, geopolitical uncertainty could underpin the safe-haven US currency and limit AUD/USD gains. It therefore remains prudent to await a break above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) before positioning for a continuation of the short-term uptrend.

AUD/USD: daily price chart

0.7033 Resistance: Technical Outlook

Trading below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7033, AUD/USD remains constrained and has slipped beneath the mid-range Fibonacci retracement levels. Potential resistance lies at the 50.0% retracement of 0.7065, followed by the 61.8% level of 0.7105. On the downside, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7025 provides initial support. Additional buying interest is expected around the 23.6% level at 0.6976, then near the broader structural base at the Fibonacci anchor of 0.6896.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)