100-day SMA breakdown: Australian Dollar falls after hot US inflation data

• 0.7020: AUD/USD retreats as key moving averages cap gains.
• 0.7032 breach at the 100-day SMA strengthens the bearish technical bias.
• Aussie buyers face pressure from robust US GDP and elevated Core PCE inflation.

AUD/USD trades at 0.7020. The Australian Dollar loses ground against the US Dollar on Thursday after meeting resistance where the 50- and 200-day SMAs converge. Robust US data underscored the economy’s resilience, potentially raising the likelihood of higher interest rates.

0.7032 breach points to more AUD/USD losses after rejection at the 50- and 200-day SMAs

US economic growth reached 3.4% YoY in Q3 2026, beating the 3.2% forecast and the previous 2.2% reading. September Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, rose by 3.1% as expected, compared with 3% a month earlier. Wall Street closed lower, underscoring weak market sentiment.

Initial Jobless Claims also featured in the releases. For the week ending 24 October, claims eased to 194K from 195K, against expectations for an increase to 199K.

Following the releases, AUD/USD deepened its decline through the 100-day SMA at 0.7032, leaving scope for additional losses. Investors nevertheless scaled back hawkish Fed bets relative to Wednesday. According to Prime Terminal, the odds stood at 76% at the time of writing, down from 84% a day earlier.

Growing optimism over diplomatic progress in the Middle East formed the backdrop. With the Asian session under way, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Oil benchmark, declined about 0.13% to $102.71.

A 6.5-basis-point decline took the 10-year US Treasury yield to 4.907%, as Treasury yields moved lower. This partly reflected the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave rates unchanged and the absence of forward guidance from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, whose focus was largely on operations rather than monetary policy.

Eight meetings would be appropriate for the FOMC, Warsh said. He added that 2027 would have seven monetary policy decisions, with six to follow in 2028.

RBA Governor Bullock’s speech was the only item on Australia’s Thursday calendar. She described inflation as far too high and acknowledged that CPI was consistent with upside risks to inflation.

Australia’s Friday calendar brings the Q3 Producer Price Index (PPI), measured on an annual basis, following a 3.6% reading in the previous quarter. In the US, speeches are scheduled from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem.

0.7069 resistance: AUD/USD price forecast and technical outlook

At 0.7024 on the daily chart, AUD/USD remains below the latest triple simple moving average reading of 0.7069, maintaining a bearish near-term bias. The pair is edging towards the bottom of its recent range. With the Relative Strength Index (14) at 51.33, just above neutral, upside momentum appears modest rather than convincing, while the broader structure continues to exert downward pressure.

The clustered 50/100/200-period simple moving averages near 0.7069 provide the first resistance, ahead of a horizontal barrier around 0.7198. Higher up, the broader descending trend line from 0.8015 adds a further constraint on rallies. Support comes from several rising trend lines originating in the 0.68–0.69 area. Although trading below the moving averages keeps the bias bearish, declines into this ascending band would likely draw buyers before the daily structure deteriorates more sharply.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)