Below 0.7000: AUD/USD price forecast with pair near two-week low ahead of RBA decision

• A two-week low was reached in Asian trading. AUD/USD is now consolidating its recent decline.
• Ahead of the RBA decision, traders appear reluctant to initiate fresh directional positions.
• Conflicting technical signals also call for caution when positioning for additional declines.

AUD/USD is consolidating below the psychological 0.7000 level. The bearish pause follows a fresh two-week low reached during Tuesday's Asian session. Traders are awaiting the crucial Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision for the next catalyst.

A 25-basis-point (bps) interest rate increase is widely anticipated from the Australian central bank. This would be its fifth rise this year as the inflation outlook deteriorates. To assess whether rates are reaching the peak of the current tightening cycle or restrictive policy must remain in place for longer, traders will scrutinise the accompanying policy statement and RBA Governor Michele Bullock's remarks at the post-meeting press conference. US midterm elections are also in focus and could trigger volatility, creating short-term opportunities in AUD/USD.

The near-term technical bias remains bearish after spot prices recently failed to extend gains beyond the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7058. Momentum indicators offer a somewhat more constructive picture: the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is marginally positive, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands around 46, signalling a mild improvement. Nevertheless, AUD/USD remains below a key Fibonacci retracement cluster beginning with the 38.2% Fibo. level at 0.7027. That positioning leaves rebounds vulnerable and suggests the easier direction for spot prices remains lower.

The 23.6% retracement at 0.6977 provides the first support, with a more significant structural floor around 0.6896 below it. A breach of that floor would likely bring renewed, stronger selling pressure. For any recovery, the first obstacle is the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at 0.7027. Further resistance lies at the 200-day SMA near 0.7058, then the 50.0% retracement at 0.7068. Beyond those levels, 0.7108 and 0.7166 stand in the way of the swing high at 0.7239.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

AUD/USD: daily price chart