1.2300 Gives Way: AUD/NZD Price Forecast as Aussie Approaches Two-Month Lows at 1.2265

• Nearly 0.7% lower on Monday, AUD/NZD falls below 1.2300 to fresh three-week lows.
• A narrow coalition government lead in provisional results from Sunday's elections drives a New Zealand Dollar rally on Monday.
• The 1.2265 to 1.2270 support zone is the key focus for sellers.

AUD/NZD is down 0.7% so far on Monday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its losses against a strengthening New Zealand Dollar (NZD) after provisional general election results in New Zealand indicated a narrow victory for the governing coalition. With the pair reaching session lows just below 1.2300, sellers are targeting the 1.2265-1.2270 zone, the floor of the past two months’ trading range.

A narrow parliamentary majority would follow from the initial election count, which gives Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s centre-right National Party and its coalition partner, the Labour Party, 67 of the 131 seats. The final outcome will not be available until 27 November. Leaders of the major parties said they would defer negotiations until those results are released.

China’s economic releases delivered a mixed picture on Monday. Annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth eased to 0.7% in October from 0.9% in September. By contrast, the Producer Price Index jumped 5.7% year-on-year, reaching its highest level in more than four years. Following the releases, both the Australian and New Zealand Dollars gained.

1.2265 Support in Focus: AUD/NZD Technical Analysis

At 1.2299, AUD/NZD remains below the descending channel’s lower boundary as its retreat from late October highs continues. The 4-hour momentum indicators signal strong bearish conditions. The Relative Strength Index (14) is approaching oversold territory but has not reached it. Meanwhile, expanding red bars on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram suggest a risk of additional losses before any substantial rebound.

With the pair below 1.2300, sellers are likely to consider another test of the 8 September and 16 October lows around 1.2265-1.2270. Beyond that zone, the 4 September low of 1.2220 would be the next downside objective, though it appears somewhat beyond reach over the coming sessions.

Any recovery would face initial resistance near 1.2335, at the channel’s lower boundary. Next comes the former support zone ahead of 1.2375, marked by the 5 and 6 November lows. Higher up, the 1.2425 area combines Friday’s high with the top of the channel.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)