Daily Financial Breakfast 30 October 2026: 3.4% US GDP Growth; Binance Probes Possible Security Issue

3.4% US GDP Growth: Today’s Market News Highlights

• 3.4% was the annualised pace of US GDP growth in the third quarter. That beat the 3.2% forecast and marked an acceleration from 2.2% in the second quarter.
• Following $2.77 billion in transfers from labelled hot wallets, Binance investigated a possible security breach. The exchange maintained that user funds were safe.
• Reports of attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz accompanied WTI trading above $103 per barrel. The Houthis also claimed six attacks on Saudi targets.
• With Persian Gulf LNG disruptions continuing, European natural gas prices exceeded €100/MWh, ING reported. EU storage was just below 75% full.
• Underlying price pressures had reached the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, the central bank indicated as it kept its short-term interest rate at 1.25%.
• After discussing an increase, the ECB unanimously kept its deposit rate at 2.50%. Joachim Nagel said decisive action would follow if required to restore price stability.
• At 0.4%, preliminary third-quarter GDP growth in the eurozone surpassed estimates of 0.2%, according to Eurostat.
• Subject to CFTC approval, ICE agreed to invest in and partner with trade[XYZ] on a proposed US venue for perpetual futures.

Cross-Asset Market Update

US Equity Futures: Nasdaq 100 Down More Than 2%

Nasdaq 100 futures lost more than 2% on Friday to trade near 28,960. Dow Jones futures eased 0.05% to around 52,490, while S&P 500 futures dropped 0.90% to around 7,680.

Foreign Exchange: Sterling Near 1.3400

During Friday’s Asian session, sterling traded around 1.3400 against the dollar, extending its advance to a third consecutive day before testing six-week highs later. AUD/USD inched up towards 0.7035. EUR/USD had reached a 17-month low of 1.1105 on Thursday, then traded around 1.1120, a decline of 0.28% at that stage.

Gold: Below $4,000 Later in the Reporting Window

After touching $4,069 on Thursday, gold traded at $4,019, down more than 1%. Early Friday trading put the metal around $4,015; it subsequently dropped below $4,000 later in the reporting window.

Leading News Stories

3.4% Annualised Growth: US Third-Quarter GDP Beats Forecast

3.4% was the annualised expansion in the US economy in the third quarter. In its first estimate, released on Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported growth above the market forecast of 3.2% and faster than the second quarter’s 2.2%.

$1.50 Billion in Crypto Liquidations Exceeded as Binance Probes Suspected Breach

On-chain data on Thursday showed transfers totalling $2.77 billion across five blockchains, from addresses labelled as Binance hot wallets to unconfirmed wallets. Binance said it was urgently examining a possible security issue. Changpeng Zhao, its founder and former chief executive, said a hack appeared likely but maintained that user funds were safe.

Later reports put potential exposure at $1.45 billion in Bitcoin and $875 million in Ethereum, plus other assets, with outflows approaching $6 billion. With help from stablecoin issuers, Binance said it had frozen $3 billion in crypto assets. It was also collaborating with law enforcement, blockchain intelligence firms and industry partners to trace and freeze further assets. Throughout, the exchange maintained that user funds were safe.

Early estimates assigned $971 million of freezes to Tether and $873 million to Circle. In separate posts published later, Tether chief executive Paolo Ardoino said $1.567 billion in USDT had been frozen, and Circle co-founder Jeremy Allaire reported $800 million in USDC. Those separately disclosed totals did not reconcile the components of Binance’s $3 billion announcement.

According to CoinGlass, liquidations totalled roughly $600 million within one hour as Bitcoin initially dropped below $80,000 and Ethereum below $2,300. By early Friday, the 24-hour liquidation total had surpassed $1.50 billion. Bitcoin was below $77,000 following Thursday’s 4% decline. Prices later on Friday put Bitcoin around $78,000 and Ethereum near $2,200.

Energy Markets & Geopolitical Developments

Above $103: WTI Gains on Reported Hormuz Vessel Attacks

A third consecutive daily advance took WTI crude above $103 per barrel on Friday, close to five-month highs. Reports of fresh attacks on vessels trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz revived supply-disruption concerns. Earlier prices for the US benchmark were around $101.85 in the Asian session and $102.20 in early European trading.

According to Xinhua, Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis said on Thursday that six missile and drone attacks had targeted oil facilities, airports and a military position across Saudi Arabia. The Ras Tanura refinery was among the targets they claimed to have attacked.

Oil had climbed to its highest price since April, said Rabobank strategist Bas van Geffen. Rabobank also estimated that the wars in Iran and Ukraine had taken nearly 12% of worldwide refining capacity for gasoline, diesel and other fuels offline.

Above €100/MWh: ING Flags European Gas Rise Amid LNG Disruption

For the first time since 2022, Europe’s benchmark TTF natural gas price had exceeded €100/MWh, according to ING’s Warren Patterson. Disruption to Persian Gulf LNG flows and Norwegian outages were restricting supply ahead of the 2026/27 winter.

Reports indicated that QatarEnergy had prolonged force majeure for several buyers through the end of the year. With EU gas storage just below 75% full, forecasts pointed to colder-than-usual conditions in Northwest Europe from the following week.

Economics in the power sector already favoured switching from gas to coal, Patterson said. He also noted signs of easing industrial demand, including lower gas consumption among European chemical producers. During the latest reporting week, investment funds added 14.3 TWh to their net long TTF position, taking it to 207.4 TWh. Gross longs increased by a little more than 20 TWh, alongside a slight rise in gross shorts.

Central Bank Decisions & Economic Indicators

1.25% Rate Hold: Bank of Japan Signals Underlying Inflation at Target

Following September’s increase, the Bank of Japan maintained its short-term interest rate at 1.25% on Friday. Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister said the statement signalled for the first time that underlying price pressures had reached the 2% inflation target.

TD Securities’ Prashant Newnaha said the bank again characterised financial conditions as accommodative and reaffirmed that it would keep raising the policy rate and adjusting monetary accommodation. The assessment emphasised a tight labour market and inflation risks linked to wages, foreign-exchange developments and AI-related demand.

Following the decision, the yen gained ground. A third consecutive daily decline in USD/JPY took the pair further below the mid-157.00s in Asian trading. EUR/JPY, meanwhile, traded around 176.10 as its two-day winning run ended.

2.50% Deposit Rate Retained: ECB Weighs Increase Before Holding

Thursday’s ECB decision to maintain all three key interest rates was unanimous. The European Central Bank kept its deposit rate at 2.50%, its main refinancing rate at 2.65% and its marginal lending rate at 2.90%. President Christine Lagarde said an increase had been discussed, but policymakers considered a measured approach appropriate. Another increase in December remained possible, with no commitment to a rate path.

Above-baseline energy prices presented upside inflation risks and downside growth risks for the ECB. The bank described underlying inflation as broadly stable and said wages had not displayed a material second-round response to the energy shock. Longer-term inflation expectations were still close to 2%. For the remaining months of 2026, its wage tracker pointed to negotiated wage growth of 2.5%-2.8%.

Early pricing-chain data showed renewed upward pressure, Lagarde said, alongside greater indirect effects from energy costs. However, she saw no further second-round effects beyond those already included in existing projections. Headline inflation would stay well above target over the coming quarters, she said. Demand faced pressure from higher financing costs, softer confidence, fiscal uncertainty and tighter financial conditions. Support for activity came from AI investment, government spending and a possible export recovery.

Internal estimates disclosed anonymously suggested that the recent increase in bond yields would reduce 2027-2028 growth by around 1 percentage point and inflation by 90 basis points against the September baseline, according to Rabobank’s Bas van Geffen. In a separate Bloomberg interview on Friday, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said the ECB would act decisively if necessary to return inflation to target. He identified rising energy costs as a major driver of the renewed increase in consumer prices.

The Governing Council also said Lagarde would leave her post in February 2027. ING’s Francesco Pesole specified 7 February as the effective date and named Pablo Hernández de Cos and Klaas Knot as leading contenders to replace her.

0.4% Third-Quarter Growth: Eurozone GDP Tops Forecasts

Eurostat’s preliminary estimate, published on Friday, put third-quarter eurozone GDP growth at 0.4%. That was above the estimated 0.2%.

Financial Sector Developments

ICE and trade[XYZ] Agree US Perpetual-Futures Partnership

Under a definitive agreement announced by Intercontinental Exchange, US customers would gain access to Hyperliquid-based perpetual-futures markets through trade[XYZ], subject to Commodity Futures Trading Commission approval. ICE would make a strategic investment in the company and serve as the exclusive operator of trade[XYZ]’s regulated markets.

Perpetual contracts would be available around the clock on the proposed dedicated US venue. Writing on X, investor Stan Druckenmiller said he had invested in trade[XYZ] after the partnership. Thursday saw Hyperliquid’s HYPE token gain 17%.

Key Events Ahead

• Bank of England: Next Monetary Policy Decision: The week following 30 October is the scheduled timing for the Bank of England’s next monetary policy decision.
• Federal Reserve: December Policy Meeting (9 December 2026): The December monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve takes place.