AUD/USD breaks 0.6950 as NASDAQ rout threatens key 0.6900 support

• AUD/USD tumbles over 1% to 0.6931 after breaking below 0.6950.
• Nasdaq 100 plunges over 5.52%, triggering widespread risk aversion.
• RBA pause expectations and strong US jobs data pressure Aussie ahead of NFP.

The Australian Dollar collapsed over 1% on Thursday as risk appetite soured and US tech stocks sold off, while strong US jobs data boosted the US Dollar ahead of Friday’s crucial Nonfarm Payrolls report. The AUD/USD trades at 0.6931, after peaking at 0.7024.

Aussie plunges as a brutal tech selloff and hawkish Fed rhetoric drive AUD/USD toward the bottom of its trading range

Market mood is risk-off as US equities collapsed during the session, with the NASDAQ 100 collapsing over 5.52% in the day, dropping “into correction territory”, as read in a CNBC headline. Growing speculation that the Democrats in control of the US Congress may push for AI regulation, along with a potential data-centre slowdown.

US data was solid as Initial Jobless Claims fell to 189K in the week ending October 31, below forecasts of 196K. The Challenger Job Cuts for October came at 43.994K down from 43,281, for a 2% increase. Despite this, companies plan to hire over 444,692 workers in October, up 57% compared with 2025 numbers.

Hawkish comments by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials lent a lifeline to the Greenback.  Cleveland Fed Beth Hammack said she favours a gradual approach to rate increases and emphasized that the Fed still has more work to do. Later, Richmond Fed Thomas Barkin said “broad-based” inflation remains too high, echoing Hammack's call for a gradual approach.

Given the backdrop, the AUD/USD decisively cleared the 0.7000 level, exacerbating the decline below 0.6950. Despite the fall, the pair continues to consolidate, but lies at the bottom of the 0.6900-0.7030 range, increasing the chances for a bearish continuation.

Traders continue to scale back their hawkish bets, assigning a 66% chance to a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, down from 82% a day earlier, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

In Australia, the docket is absent on Friday, yet signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have pushed investors to price out further rate hikes, and they now expect the RBA to hold rates at least until the June 22, 2027 monetary policy meeting, revealed Prime Terminal.

Ahead, the US schedule will feature October’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, the Unemployment Rate and the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6928 with a bearish near-term bias, as spot holds below the clustered simple moving averages (SMA) pack, whose latest composite reading sits near 0.7050. Price also trades under a series of rising trend-line projections that now act as overhead resistance between roughly 0.7120 and 0.7470, underscoring a market that remains capped despite an oversold rebound earlier in the month. The 14-period Relative Strength Index around 39 points to weak but stabilizing downside momentum, hinting that sellers still control the tape even as pressure has moderated.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the triple SMA zone around 0.7050, followed by a rising trend line near 0.7123 and a more prominent horizontal barrier at 0.7198; a daily close above these caps would be needed to ease the current bearish structure. On the downside, immediate support is defined by a shorter-term ascending trend line around 0.6923, with a deeper structural floor coming in near the prior downtrend reference around 0.6347 if selling resumes in earnest.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)