Daily Financial Breakfast 30 October 2026: US GDP Grows 3.4% While Binance Investigates Potential Security Issue

Market News Today: Key Takeaways

• US GDP expanded at an annual rate of 3.4% in the third quarter, exceeding the 3.2% forecast and accelerating from 2.2% in the second quarter.
• Binance investigated a suspected security breach after $2.77 billion moved from labelled hot wallets, while the exchange said user funds were safe.
• WTI traded above $103 per barrel amid reports of attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, while the Houthis claimed six attacks on Saudi targets.
• ING reported European natural gas prices above €100/MWh as Persian Gulf LNG disruptions persisted and EU storage stood just below 75% full.
• The Bank of Japan held its short-term interest rate at 1.25% and indicated that underlying price pressures had reached its 2% target.
• The ECB unanimously held its deposit rate at 2.50% after debating an increase, while Joachim Nagel said it would act decisively if needed to restore price stability.
• Eurozone preliminary third-quarter GDP growth reached 0.4%, exceeding estimates of 0.2%, Eurostat reported.
• ICE agreed to partner with and invest in trade[XYZ] on a proposed US perpetual-futures venue, subject to CFTC approval.

Market Developments

US Equity Futures

On Friday, Dow Jones futures slipped 0.05% to around 52,490, S&P 500 futures fell 0.90% to around 7,680 and Nasdaq 100 futures declined more than 2% to near 28,960.

Foreign Exchange

Sterling rose against the dollar for a third consecutive day on Friday, trading around 1.3400 during Asian hours and later testing six-week highs. AUD/USD edged higher to near 0.7035. On Thursday, EUR/USD touched a 17-month low of 1.1105 before trading around 1.1120, down 0.28% at that point.

Gold

Gold fell more than 1% on Thursday, trading at $4,019 after reaching $4,069. It traded around $4,015 early Friday before falling below $4,000 later in the reporting window.

Top Stories

US Third-Quarter GDP Growth Accelerates to 3.4%

The US economy expanded at an annual rate of 3.4% in the third quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its first estimate on Thursday. Growth exceeded the market forecast of 3.2% and accelerated from the 2.2% expansion recorded in the second quarter.

Binance Investigates Suspected Breach as Crypto Liquidations Exceed $1.50 Billion

Binance said it was urgently investigating a potential security issue after on-chain data showed $2.77 billion moving across five blockchains from addresses labelled as its hot wallets to unconfirmed wallets on Thursday. Founder and former chief executive Changpeng Zhao said a hack appeared likely, while maintaining that user funds were safe.

Subsequent reporting identified potential exposure of $1.45 billion in Bitcoin and $875 million in Ethereum, alongside other assets, and nearly $6 billion in outflows. Binance said it had frozen $3 billion in crypto assets with assistance from stablecoin issuers and was working with law enforcement, blockchain intelligence firms and industry partners to trace and freeze additional assets. The exchange continued to state that user funds were safe.

Initial figures put Tether's and Circle's freezes at $971 million and $873 million, respectively. In later, separate posts, Tether chief executive Paolo Ardoino reported freezing $1.567 billion in USDT, while Circle co-founder Jeremy Allaire reported $800 million in USDC. These separately reported figures did not provide a reconciled breakdown of Binance's $3 billion announcement.

Bitcoin and Ethereum initially fell below $80,000 and $2,300, respectively, with roughly $600 million in liquidations within one hour, according to CoinGlass. By early Friday, 24-hour liquidations exceeded $1.50 billion and Bitcoin had slipped below $77,000 after a 4% decline on Thursday. Later Friday prices placed Bitcoin around $78,000 and Ethereum near $2,200.

Energy & Geopolitics

WTI Trades Above $103 Amid Reports of Hormuz Attacks

WTI crude rose for a third consecutive day on Friday, trading above $103 per barrel near five-month highs as reports of new attacks on vessels attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz renewed concerns about supply disruptions. Earlier quotations placed the US benchmark around $101.85 in Asian trading and $102.20 in early European hours.

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis said on Thursday that they had launched six missile and drone attacks against oil facilities, airports and a military position across Saudi Arabia, Xinhua reported. Their claimed targets included the Ras Tanura refinery.

Rabobank strategist Bas van Geffen said oil prices had reached their highest level since April. The bank also estimated that wars in Iran and Ukraine had left nearly 12% of global refining capacity for gasoline, diesel and other fuels offline.

ING Reports European Gas Above €100/MWh as LNG Disruptions Persist

European benchmark TTF natural gas prices had moved above €100/MWh for the first time since 2022, ING's Warren Patterson said, as disrupted Persian Gulf LNG flows and Norwegian outages constrained supply ahead of the 2026/27 winter.

QatarEnergy had reportedly extended force majeure for several buyers until the end of the year. EU gas storage was just below 75% full, while forecasts indicated colder-than-usual weather in Northwest Europe from the following week.

Patterson said power-sector economics were already favouring gas-to-coal switching and industrial demand was showing signs of softening, including reduced gas use by European chemical producers. Investment funds increased their net long TTF position by 14.3 TWh to 207.4 TWh over the latest reporting week; gross long positions rose by a little more than 20 TWh, while gross short positions also edged higher.

Central Banks & Economic Data

Bank of Japan Holds Rate at 1.25% as Underlying Inflation Reaches Target

The Bank of Japan left its short-term interest rate unchanged at 1.25% on Friday, following an increase in September. Its statement indicated for the first time that underlying price pressures had reached the 2% inflation target, according to Commerzbank's Michael Pfister.

The bank continued to describe financial conditions as accommodative and reiterated that it would continue to raise the policy rate and adjust monetary accommodation, TD Securities' Prashant Newnaha said. Its assessment highlighted labour-market tightness and inflation risks associated with wages, foreign-exchange developments and AI-related demand.

The yen strengthened after the decision. USD/JPY declined for a third consecutive day, moving further below the mid-157.00s during Asian trading, while EUR/JPY ended a two-day winning streak and traded around 176.10.

ECB Holds Deposit Rate at 2.50% After Debating an Increase

The European Central Bank unanimously left its three key interest rates unchanged on Thursday, retaining the deposit rate at 2.50%, the main refinancing rate at 2.65% and the marginal lending rate at 2.90%. President Christine Lagarde said policymakers had debated an increase but judged a measured approach appropriate, leaving another increase in December possible without committing to a rate path.

Energy prices had exceeded the ECB's baseline assumptions, posing upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth. The bank said underlying inflation remained broadly stable, wages had not shown a material second-round response to the energy shock and longer-term inflation expectations remained close to 2%. Its wage tracker indicated negotiated wage growth of 2.5%-2.8% in the remaining months of 2026.

Lagarde pointed to renewed upward pressure in early pricing-chain data and more indirect effects from energy costs, but no additional second-round effects beyond those incorporated in existing projections. She said headline inflation would remain well above target in the coming quarters. Higher financing costs, weaker confidence, fiscal uncertainty and tighter financial conditions were weighing on demand, while AI investment, government spending and a potential export recovery were supporting activity.

Rabobank's Bas van Geffen cited anonymously disclosed internal estimates that the recent rise in bond yields would subtract around 1 percentage point from 2027-2028 growth and 90 basis points from inflation relative to the September baseline. Separately, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel told Bloomberg on Friday that the ECB would take decisive action if needed to bring inflation back to target, identifying higher energy costs as a major contributor to renewed consumer-price growth.

The Governing Council also announced that Lagarde would step down in February 2027. ING's Francesco Pesole put the effective date at 7 February and identified Pablo Hernández de Cos and Klaas Knot as leading candidates to succeed her.

Eurozone Third-Quarter GDP Growth Beats Estimates at 0.4%

Eurozone GDP grew 0.4% in the third quarter, according to Eurostat's preliminary estimate released on Friday. The reading exceeded estimates of 0.2%.

Financial Industry

ICE Agrees to US Perpetual-Futures Partnership With trade[XYZ]

Intercontinental Exchange announced a definitive agreement with trade[XYZ] to bring Hyperliquid-based perpetual-futures markets to US customers, subject to Commodity Futures Trading Commission approval. ICE would exclusively operate trade[XYZ]'s regulated markets and make a strategic investment in the company.

The proposed dedicated US venue would provide round-the-clock access to perpetual contracts. Investor Stan Druckenmiller said on X that he had invested in trade[XYZ] following the partnership. Hyperliquid's HYPE token rose 17% on Thursday.

Upcoming Key Events

• Bank of England Monetary Policy Decision: The Bank of England's next monetary policy decision is scheduled for the week following 30 October.
• Federal Reserve Policy Meeting (9 December 2026): The Federal Reserve holds its December monetary policy meeting.