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Why Does Societe Generale See the Australian Dollar as Vulnerable After Weak Data?
Leveraged housing markets, including Australia’s, are coming under pressure from rising global bond yields, according to Kit Juckes at Societe Generale. Both the latest NAB business confidence reading and home loans figures were notably weak. He continues to favour AUD rates over USD rates, but sees scope for AUD/USD to decline following the Australian Dollar’s strong performance earlier in the year.
Why Favour a Rates Trade Over the Currency?
"The rise in bond yields, however, is feeding through to leveraged housing markets, and Australia is certainly one of them."
"Yesterday’s NAB business confidence indicator took a sharp turn lower, and this morning’s home loans data were at least as disappointing."
"In the current market, I suspect that may still be a better trade than shorting AUD/USD, although the latter has room to fall given how well the Australian dollar has performed overall this year."
(An Artificial Intelligence tool assisted in creating this article, which was reviewed by an editor. Learn more.)
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