3 forces are pulling Brent this week: a US waiver for Russian exports, Gulf flows that fell to 8.5 million barrels a day, and OPEC+ holding output steady.

October 19, 2026  |  Brent / WTI  |  Horizon: weekly  |  Read time: 5 min

Brent fell about 2% on Monday morning to near $107.6 a barrel after settling around $109.7 on Friday, its highest close since May 19. West Texas Intermediate slipped to about $99.5 after posting its highest close since September 17. The immediate cause: a US step that could return Russian barrels to the market, at a time when Gulf supply is still disrupted.

What happened?

The US president signed an executive order on Friday waiving certain sanctions and tariffs on Russia, which could allow larger Russian fuel exports. Estimates relayed by Reuters suggest planned diesel exports could start at about 2.3 million barrels this month and rise to roughly 7.6 million barrels a month. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the administration will take up to 60 days to assess the economic impact.

But the market does not read the news in isolation. The potential easing of Russian supply collides with a more complicated physical reality in the Middle East.

Why is the market moving?

Note: Analysts caution that extra Russian fuel exports may not fully offset physical disruption in the Middle East. DBS expects crude to stay within $100–$110 until the US midterm elections.

Technical view

The October range between $104 and $110 is Brent's reference frame. $110 is a ceiling that rejected last week's advance, and a daily close above it would open the way toward the May highs, while the $100–$104 zone forms the nearest support base.

Warning: Oil is highly sensitive to geopolitical news, and price gaps can appear at the weekly open or after shipping incidents. These scenarios are conditional, not forecasts.

Watchlist

What it means for traders

• A single headline can push price both ways within a session. Stick to an exit plan set in advance instead of reacting to the first move.
• Watch the Brent–WTI spread, which shifts with supply disruption and shipping conditions.
• Higher oil feeds inflation expectations, which affects the dollar and gold. Follow the linked assets together.
• Before the weekend, review the chance of opening gaps.

Frequently asked questions

Why did oil fall despite the Hormuz disruption?

Because the market weighed two opposing stories: disrupted supply in the Gulf and a US waiver that could increase Russian exports. In this session the waiver headline outweighed sentiment.

What is the difference between Brent and WTI?

Brent is the global pricing benchmark sourced from the North Sea, and WTI is the US benchmark. They usually move together, but the spread is shaped by shipping, inventories and regional factors.

What is Brent's most important technical level now?

$110 is the nearest resistance, and the $100–$104 zone is support. A close outside the range is the key signal.