USD/JPY Price Forecast: Slides to a one-week low as sellers target range support near 157.50

Falling US bond yields weigh on the USD, leaving USD/JPY under heavy selling pressure on Thursday.
Expectations of a BoJ rate increase and the risk of intervention support the JPY, adding to the pair’s downward pressure.
Losses in the USD could be contained by geopolitical risks and hawkish Fed expectations, lending support to spot prices.

Trading around 157.70, USD/JPY has fallen to a one-week low in Thursday’s Asian session. Broad US Dollar (USD) weakness has brought the pair closer to the bottom of the range in place since the start of this month.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

With US bond yields continuing to retreat from multi-year highs, the USD Index (DXY), a measure of the Greenback against a basket of currencies, remains near the three-week low reached on Tuesday. By contrast, hawkish comments earlier this week from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda are supporting the Japanese Yen (JPY). His remarks signalled room for another rate rise as early as December, a prospect seen as weighing on USD/JPY.

Inflation concerns linked to volatile energy prices mean traders continue to assign around a 90% probability to another increase in borrowing costs by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) before year-end. Further escalating tensions in the Middle East are also sustaining the geopolitical risk premium. This could underpin the safe-haven Greenback and contain USD/JPY losses, with traders turning their attention to next week’s key central bank events.

Below the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 158.47, spot prices retain a bearish near-term bias. Negative momentum indicators, together with an intraday break beneath the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, strengthen the case for additional declines. Momentum appears to be weakening, as indicated by a Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 38.24. Meanwhile, the negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line below zero points to limited scope for rallies.

Confirmation of the bearish outlook would nevertheless require a decisive break beneath trading-range support in the mid-157.00s. Such a move could take USD/JPY down to the 38.2% Fibo. level at 157.15, followed by the 23.6% retracement near 155.52 and the swing low anchor around 152.88. Resistance initially lies at the 100-period SMA at 158.07. Together with the nearby 50.0% retracement at 158.47, it creates a narrow supply zone before the 61.8% retracement at 159.79 and the 78.6% level at 161.66.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

USD/JPY on the 4-hour chart

US Dollar Performs Best Against Yen Over Last 7 Days

Over the last 7 days, the US Dollar (USD) recorded its strongest performance against the Japanese Yen. Its percentage changes against the major currencies listed are set out below.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.81%	-1.53%	-0.35%	-1.43%	-0.63%	-1.68%	-1.50%
EUR	0.81%		-0.75%	0.44%	-0.70%	0.19%	-0.88%	-0.74%
GBP	1.53%	0.75%		1.18%	0.11%	0.93%	-0.21%	0.06%
JPY	0.35%	-0.44%	-1.18%		-1.02%	-0.25%	-1.33%	-1.11%
CAD	1.43%	0.70%	-0.11%	1.02%		0.76%	-0.32%	-0.01%
AUD	0.63%	-0.19%	-0.93%	0.25%	-0.76%		-1.06%	-0.84%
NZD	1.68%	0.88%	0.21%	1.33%	0.32%	1.06%		0.17%
CHF	1.50%	0.74%	-0.06%	1.11%	0.01%	0.84%	-0.17%

Percentage movements between the major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, choosing the US Dollar on the left and following its row across to the Japanese Yen gives the percentage change for USD (base)/JPY (quote) in the corresponding cell.