USD/JPY Price Forecast: 200-day SMA resistance stands in bullish pin bar’s path

• Below resistance at the 200-day SMA, USD/JPY develops a possible bullish pin bar.
• A downward turn in the still-bullish RSI points to weakening buying momentum.
• Above 159.00, a breakout would bring 159.16 into focus; below 157.39, 156.08 would be at risk.

Down 0.20% following the US midterm election results, USD/JPY has recovered some of its earlier losses but remains slightly lower. A tilted bullish pin bar appears to be taking shape, although the pair continues to consolidate between the 50- and 200-day SMAs at 157.39 and 158.62, respectively. It is trading at 158.41 at the time of writing.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Pair remains subdued without a clear direction

With no clear directional bias, USD/JPY continues to trade quietly. Lower highs and lower lows still define the market structure. A recovery above 159.00, however, would open the way towards the 100-day SMA at 159.16, with buyers looking for a test of 160.00.

Momentum suggests such a move remains a distant prospect: despite holding in bullish territory, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is turning lower. Nevertheless, a rise through 160.00 could allow buyers to overturn the bearish market structure by breaking above the 2 September high of 160.39.

For the decline to resume, sellers would first need to push USD/JPY beneath 158.00, then break through the 50-day SMA at 157.39. Below that average, 157.00 would come into view, followed by the 23 October low of the day (LOD) at 156.08.

USD/JPY Daily Price Chart – Pair Trades Between Moving Averages