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Last week saw US Initial Jobless Claims fall to 194K
- At 194K, Initial Jobless Claims were below the previous week’s level.
- A decline in Continuing Jobless Claims took the total to 1.701M.
Initial applications for unemployment insurance by US citizens fell to 194K in the week ending 24 October, below the initial estimate of 199K. Thursday’s report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) also showed that the figure was down from the previous week’s 195K, which had been revised from 194K.
At 196.75K, the 4-week moving average was also lower, declining by 1.25K from the previous week’s revised figure of 198K.
For the week ending 17 October, the report put Continuing Jobless Claims at 1.701M, a decrease of 21K.
US Dollar recovers some ground
With the US Dollar Index (DXY) posting modest gains above 102.00 on Thursday, the Greenback has regained upward momentum and recovered part of the previous day’s losses.
Employment explained
As an important gauge of economic health, labour market conditions play a central role in currency valuation. When employment is high, or unemployment low, consumer spending and economic growth tend to benefit, supporting the domestic currency. A particularly tight labour market, in which too few workers are available to fill vacancies, can also affect inflation and, in turn, monetary policy: strong demand for labour combined with limited supply pushes wages higher.
For policymakers, the rate of salary growth across an economy is a crucial consideration. Rapid wage increases give households more money to spend, typically pushing up consumer goods prices. Unlike more volatile inflation drivers, including energy prices, pay rises are unlikely to be reversed. Wage growth is therefore regarded as an important component of underlying, persistent inflation. This explains why central banks worldwide scrutinise wage data when setting monetary policy.
Central banks give differing weight to labour market conditions according to their objectives. For some, an explicit employment-related mandate sits alongside the task of controlling inflation. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for instance, has a dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices. By contrast, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation in check. Whatever their mandates, however, policymakers regard labour market conditions as important, both as an indicator of economic health and because of their direct link to inflation.
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