US Dollar Index: Fed outlook and CPI take centre stage – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank’s economists expect monthly US inflation readings to soften as markets turn from strong US payrolls to October CPI and PPI. Jim Reid and his team note that the Dollar Index finished at 102.11, a gain of 0.51%. Year-on-year CPI cannot be calculated because 2025 index levels are missing. The economists continue to forecast 25bp Fed rate increases in December and March.

Dollar draws support from data and the Fed

"We move on from payrolls to US inflation as the main macro focus this week, with October CPI tomorrow and PPI on Friday, alongside a busy slate of Fed speakers."

"Our economists expect headline CPI to rise by 0.20% month-on-month, down from 0.65% previously, with core CPI also up 0.20% after 0.33% last time."

"Because October 2025 index levels were not produced during last year’s government shutdown, year-on-year inflation rates cannot be calculated for this release."

"Our economists expect producer prices to rise by 0.20% month-on-month, compared with 0.32% in September, leaving the year-on-year rate broadly steady at 3.1%."

"Our economists continue to expect 25bp rate increases at the December and March FOMC meetings, absent a further material tightening in financial conditions."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)