Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rebounds from YTD low as outlook remains uncertain

• From a YTD low of $53.46, Silver recovers towards $54.50.
• Higher oil prices leave the outlook for Silver uncertain.
• An unchanged interest rate decision from the Fed is expected by investors on Wednesday.

After reaching a fresh year-to-date (YTD) low near $53.46, Silver (XAG/USD) recovers towards $54.50 in early European trading on Friday. The rebound in the white metal reverses most of its earlier losses.

Rising oil prices, driven by risks to energy supplies, continue to cloud Silver’s outlook. More expensive oil raises global inflation expectations, in turn fuelling expectations that central banks will keep interest rates higher. This reduces the attraction of non-yielding assets such as Silver. At the time of writing, WTI Oil is trading above $100, up 1.5%.

Fears of a renewed escalation in Middle East tensions have heightened risks to energy supplies. According to Reuters, the US State Department this week ordered non-emergency personnel and family members to depart American embassies in Saudi Arabia.

Wednesday’s monetary policy announcement from the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be the next major catalyst for Silver. Interest rates are almost certain to remain within the 3.75%-4.00% range, with investors closely scrutinising the Fed’s guidance on inflation and the economic outlook.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed will keep rates unchanged this month before raising them in December.

Silver Technical Analysis Points to Continued Bearish Pressure

At $54.29 on the daily chart, XAG/USD remains well beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $58.77, leaving the near-term bias bearish. Pressure on the metal persists following its recent decline. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (14) is close to 32, suggesting that downward momentum remains, although its proximity to oversold territory could temper further losses.

The first significant resistance on the upside is the 20-day EMA at $58.77. A sustained move back above that level would be required to soften the prevailing bearish tone. As the supplied dataset offers no nearby structural support levels, traders are likely to monitor the RSI for indications that selling pressure is running out. Nevertheless, the broader technical picture continues to favour sellers while XAG/USD remains below the key EMA ceiling.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)