Ripple and Stellar outlook: XRP and XLM retreat as hawkish Fed rhetoric adds pressure

• With Fed rates left unchanged and its tone hawkish, XRP deepens its correction towards $1.30.
• After recovering for three consecutive days this week, XLM falls more than 2% on Thursday.
• Both altcoins face limits to their recovery as derivatives indicators deteriorate and on-chain signals remain bearish.

Key support at $1.30 draws closer for Ripple (XRP) on Thursday, while Stellar (XLM) surrenders part of its recent advance. Both remain under pressure, with bearish positioning in derivatives markets and on-chain signals undermining sentiment. 

At its two-day October policy meeting, the Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates at 3.75%-4.00%. The cautious decision to hold, accompanied by a hawkish undertone and concerns over inflation, reinforces the subdued market backdrop, weighing on risk assets including XRP and XLM.

Derivatives indicators reinforce bearish expectations

Conditions for Ripple and Stellar are deteriorating, according to derivatives data. On Thursday, CoinGlass’ long-to-short ratios stand at 0.60 for XRP and 0.74 for XLM, approaching their lowest readings in over a month. Readings below one signal bearish sentiment, reflecting traders’ bets on falling asset prices.

XRP funding rates offer a contrast, having moved into positive territory on 16 October. Thursday’s reading of 0.0080% means long position holders are paying those holding shorts, pointing to a mildly bullish outlook.

XLM funding rates, by comparison, turned negative on Thursday to reach -0.0051%. Short position holders are therefore paying those holding longs, signalling a bearish bias.

On-chain indicators reflect market caution

A bearish picture for both altcoins emerges from CryptoQuant’s summary data. In XRP’s spot and futures markets, sizeable whale orders coincide with heating market conditions and seller dominance. Taken together, these signals point to a cautious, bearish bias among Ripple traders.

Seller dominance is also evident across XLM’s spot and futures markets, pointing to a negative outlook among Stellar traders.

XRP technical outlook: Price approaches key $1.300 support

At $1.302 on Thursday, XRP sits just above horizontal support at $1.300, but its short-term bias remains bearish as the price stays well beneath the key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). Overhead resistance comes from the 100-day EMA at $1.333, the 50-day EMA at $1.357 and the 200-day EMA at $1.372. This tightly packed band of trend resistance suggests limited scope for the recent recovery.

A Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 41 points to persistent downside pressure and subdued momentum. That is despite a modest improvement in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), which has edged into positive territory above the zero line.

The recently defended horizontal floor near $1.300 provides immediate downside support. A clear break beneath it would likely leave XRP vulnerable to a deeper correction over the coming sessions.

The first upside hurdle is the 100-day EMA around $1.333, ahead of the 50-day EMA near $1.357 and the 200-day EMA at $1.372. Bulls would need to regain this key zone to temper the bearish bias. Further up, $1.540 presents a more substantial obstacle before major resistance at $1.900, where earlier selling supply is likely to return should the pair sustain its recovery.

XLM technical outlook: Momentum indicators lose strength

Trading at $0.168 on Thursday, XLM remains below the key EMAs, maintaining its bearish short-term bias. The 50-day and 100-day EMAs, both around $0.187, and the 200-day EMA at $0.190 form overhead barriers. Although the pair has stabilised above recent lows, these levels suggest the broader trend remains constrained.

With the RSI near 35 and the MACD line still below zero, momentum remains weak. Selling pressure therefore appears dominant despite easing volatility.

Any recovery first encounters horizontal resistance around $0.173, followed by a closely grouped band of EMAs between $0.187 and $0.190 that is likely to constrain further gains. A stronger bullish move would then meet the next significant horizontal barrier at $0.234.

Immediate downside support lies at $0.153. A convincing break beneath that floor would leave room for a deeper retreat; holding above it, however, may allow XLM to consolidate before making another attempt at the $0.173 area.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)