Pepe Price Forecast: PEPE eyes rally from triangle breakout as whale activity sends mixed signals

• Following Thursday’s 5% pullback from a descending resistance trendline, Pepe has rebounded by over 2% on Friday.
• A broad decline in PEPE’s exchange supply points to a neutral-to-bullish picture, although on-chain figures reveal mixed activity among whales.
• A 2% rise in futures open interest over 24 hours underscores continued strength in PEPE’s retail demand.

After a 5% fall the previous day, Pepe (PEPE) is showing signs of a rebound on Friday, though its price remains confined within a symmetrical triangle. Rising futures open interest indicates resilient retail demand for the frog-themed meme coin, even as it struggles to maintain its appeal to large-wallet investors. Strengthening momentum gives PEPE’s technical outlook an upward bias, increasing the prospect of a rally on a breakout from the triangle.

Retail demand counters mixed on-chain signals

Broader market uncertainty is weighing on whales, leaving Pepe’s on-chain indicators mixed. As of Friday, wallets with over 1 billion PEPE tokens hold 96.38% of the circulating supply, compared with 96.4% on September 1. By contrast, investors holding 100 million to 1 billion PEPE have continued to increase their share, reaching 2.56% of circulating supply from 2.55% over the same period. 

Exchange supply has also fallen from 18.75% to 17.8%, pointing to an easing of selling pressure. The proportion of supply in profit, however, has risen to 45.67%. While this indicates a steady near-term recovery, it also raises concerns about profit-taking. 

Firm buying pressure persists in Pepe futures among retail participants. CoinGlass reports a 2% increase in PEPE futures open interest over the last 24 hours, indicating that open positions are building while the spot price stalls. Over the same 24 hours, the funding rate has risen from -0.0133% to -0.0078%, suggesting that taking short positions has become less attractive.

Technical Analysis: PEPE Eyes Further Gains on a Triangle Breakout

At around $0.00000450 at the time of writing on Friday, Pepe has almost recouped the previous day’s 5% loss. Above the current price, resistance lies near $0.00000476 along a trendline linking the September 22 and Wednesday highs. 

Together with an ascending support trendline linking the September 11 and October 8 lows near $0.00000396, this overhead trendline defines a symmetrical triangle. Should a breakout above resistance near $0.00000476 be confirmed, the rally could continue towards the September 22 peak of $0.00000536. Using the move from the September 11 low of $0.00000320 to the September 22 high of $0.00000536, Fibonacci retracement analysis identifies the 127.2% and 161.8% extension levels as the next significant hurdles, at $0.00000617 and $0.00000737 respectively.

On the daily chart, momentum is strengthening as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) climbs above its signal line in positive territory. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), at 60, is crossing above the midline, pointing to scope for further gains before it enters overbought territory.

If the price turns lower, support lies at the 50% retracement level of $0.00000414, followed by the October 8 low of $0.00000364.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)