New Zealand Dollar plummets as RBNZ unexpectedly leaves rates steady

• New Zealand Dollar underperforms against its peers as the RBNZ leaves policy rates steady.
• The RBNZ was expected to hike the OCR by 25 bps to 3%.
• Investors expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) trades sharply lower against its major currency peers on Wednesday. Against the US Dollar (USD), the kiwi dollar is down 1.28% to near 0.5600.

In the policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unexpectedly leave the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.75%. The RBNZ was widely anticipated to raise rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3%.

However, RBNZ Governor Anna Breman has kept the door open for further tightening and has signaled more than previously expected.

“More OCR hikes probable, but dependent on economic outlook, the RBNZ said in the monetary policy statement. “They may even be higher than we said at the September ​meeting," RBNZ Governor Breman said, Reuters reported.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar extends its winning streak for the fourth trading day on Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades slightly higher to near 101.43.

The Fed is widely anticipated to leave interest rates unchanged in the 3.75%-4.00%, which underpins the central bank’s communication as key driver for the US Dollar’s outlook.

Economists at Deutsche Bank expect the upcoming Fed decision to be largely uneventful in terms of the formal communication, noting that “the statement itself [is] to contain only limited changes, although dissents to a hold are possible.” In their view, “the interest will therefore be in Chair Warsh’s press conference and how the Fed balances still-elevated inflation and solid growth against the recent tightening in financial conditions,” with markets likely to scrutinize his remarks for any shift in the policy narrative.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5614, keeping a bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.5663. The pair remains pressured after failing to sustain this moving average in recent sessions, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 39 is recovering from oversold territory but still leans to the downside, suggesting that bounces may continue to face selling interest below the 0.57 area.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 20-day EMA around 0.5663, and a daily close above this barrier would ease immediate downside pressure and open the way toward last week’s highs. On the downside, the absence of nearby mapped technical supports from the current dataset leaves the recent lows as a soft floor, implying that a clear break under the 0.56 handle would likely expose further weakness in the broader downtrend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)