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Lagarde speech: Confidence could suffer from fiscal uncertainty
With key interest rates held steady at the October policy meeting, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde outlines the reasons for the decision and takes questions from journalists.
Lagarde outlines the policy outlook
"Incoming data suggests economy is expanding in Q3."
"Growth should be underpinned in the near term."
"Renewed energy price increases, financing costs hurt confidence, growth."
"AI investment, government spending should support growth, exports should pick up."
"Fiscal sustainability is the key anchor."
"Early stages of pricing chain point to upward pressure."
"ECB wage tracker points to 2.5%-2.8% in remaining months of 2026."
"Most measures of longer-term inflation expectations stand at around 2%."
"Energy prices have increased beyond baseline."
"Energy will rise inflation further in the medium term."
"Headline inflation will likely remain well above target in coming quarters, thereafter decline in energy inflation should bring down headline inflation."
"Risks to growth are to the downside."
"Worsening of market sentiment could tighten financing conditions, dampen demand."
"Fiscal uncertainty could hurt confidence."
ECB policy and its influence on the euro
Based in Frankfurt, Germany, the European Central Bank (ECB) serves as the Eurozone’s central bank, setting interest rates and overseeing the region’s monetary policy. Maintaining price stability is the ECB’s primary mandate, meaning it aims to keep inflation at around 2%. To meet that objective, it mainly adjusts interest rates upwards or downwards. The euro usually strengthens when interest rates are relatively high and weakens when they are relatively low. Monetary policy is determined by the ECB Governing Council, which meets eight times a year. Its decisions are taken by the heads of the Eurozone’s national central banks alongside six permanent members, among them ECB President Christine Lagarde.
When cutting interest rates alone is unlikely to deliver price stability, the European Central Bank may turn to Quantitative Easing (QE) as a last resort in extreme circumstances. Under QE, the ECB creates euros to purchase assets, typically government or corporate bonds, from banks and other financial institutions. The policy generally weakens the euro. The ECB deployed QE during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, again in 2015 as inflation persisted at low levels, and during the Covid pandemic.
As the opposite of QE, quantitative tightening (QT) follows a period of quantitative easing once an economic recovery is under way and inflation begins to increase. Under QE, the European Central Bank (ECB) supplies liquidity to financial institutions by purchasing government and corporate bonds. Under QT, by contrast, it ceases further bond purchases and no longer reinvests the principal repaid as its existing bond holdings mature. QT is generally supportive of, or bullish for, the euro.
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