Gold falls to new YTD low as $3,886 support gives way and Fed hawks maintain pressure

• Gold sheds more than 3.3%, reaching a new yearly low of $3,880.
• Bearish pressure is confirmed by the break below $3,886, leaving prices vulnerable to further losses.
• December rate hike probability drops to 70% even as Fed officials favour further tightening.

A fresh year-to-date (YTD) low of $3,880 marked Friday’s sell-off in Gold (XAU/USD), which broke below $3,900 for the first time since October last year. Higher US Treasury yields and a firmer Greenback accompanied a deterioration in risk appetite, while hawkish Fed comments added to the pressure on prices. At $3,884, XAU/USD is trading more than 3.3% lower.

XAU/USD deepens its decline as hawkish Fed comments and elevated Oil prices weigh

A break below the key $3,886 support level, established on 28 October 2025, leaves Bullion vulnerable to further declines, according to price action. Of three Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, two advocated further tightening, although all three favoured proceeding gradually.

Two further rate rises were advocated by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan. Meanwhile, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem argued that policy was still too loose and called for another increase soon.

A gradual approach was also favoured by Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, who nevertheless acknowledged that inflationary pressure was spreading.

Against this backdrop, however, US Treasury yields slipped and the US Dollar made no headway.

US economic growth reached a healthy 3.4% YoY in Q3, comfortably surpassing forecasts. At 3.1% YoY, core PCE inflation was above September’s reading but matched estimates and remained elevated. While these figures could make a Fed rate rise more likely, investors have reduced the probability to 70% from around 84% on Wednesday after the Fed’s decision, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Rising energy prices are adding to the pressure on Bullion, despite continuing talks between the US and Iran, according to Axios. The US Oil benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), is trading near $102 per barrel, up 0.5%.

A busy US economic calendar awaits next week, with the October ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs among the releases markets will monitor. Employment figures will also feature prominently: JOLTS, the ADP Employment Change and Initial Jobless Claims are due, alongside the week’s main release, Nonfarm Payrolls.

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold remains under pressure below $3,900

With Gold below $3,900, the broader trend remains bearish and a 12-month low is within reach. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows negative momentum approaching oversold territory, indicating that the downtrend is gathering strength.

A daily close in XAU/USD below the 28 October 2025 low of $3,886 would bring $3,800 into focus. A break beneath that level would shift attention to $3,500, the swing high from 22 April 2025 that has since become support.

Buyers would need to reclaim $3,900 and $4,000 to establish a bullish reversal. A move above those levels would open the way for a test of $4,100, followed by the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,213.