GBP/USD Price Forecast: Firmer USD pushes pair to one-week low near 1.3320, the 38.2% Fibo. level

A third consecutive day of selling weighs on GBP/USD on Tuesday as the USD strengthens broadly.
With the UK Autumn Budget and a pivotal FOMC decision approaching, further losses appear limited.
Technical signals also suggest caution is warranted before taking aggressive bearish positions.

Trading around 1.3320, GBP/USD is down 0.15% on Tuesday as persistent demand for the US Dollar (USD) keeps the pair under pressure. The decline marks a third consecutive day of losses, extending the retreat from last week's peak near 1.3420, its highest level since 16 September. During the first half of the European session, the pair fell to a one-week low.

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Wednesday's major events may nevertheless encourage traders to hold back, potentially limiting further declines. Against the backdrop of Prime Minister Andy Burnham's substantial spending plans, UK Chancellor John Healey is due to present his first Autumn Budget. Attention will then turn to the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which announces its crucial decision at the end of a two-day meeting. The outcome will shape USD price movements and give GBP/USD a fresh catalyst.

The recent failure to establish a foothold above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), at 1.3401, leaves the technical picture mildly constrained on the upside. As GBP/USD slips towards the middle of its recent Fibonacci retracement range, the 38.2% level near 1.3311 offers immediate support. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, meanwhile, is still above zero, although its positive line is contracting.

Just below 50, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) points to momentum that is improving but remains fragile within a broader bearish structure. Should selling continue below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, the next levels in view would be 50.0% at 1.3278 and the deeper 61.8% retracement at 1.3244. Together, these levels form a consolidation floor for pullbacks.

Any recovery would initially face resistance at the 23.6% retracement of 1.3353, followed by the 200-day EMA at 1.3401 and the recent swing high near 1.3420. Only a daily close above this group of levels would ease the prevailing bearish constraint and pave the way for a more sustained recovery.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

GBP/USD price action on the daily chart

US Dollar Gains Most Against Euro This Week

This week's percentage moves in the US Dollar (USD) against the major currencies listed appear in the table below. The Euro has seen the strongest performance by the US Dollar against it.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.57%	0.35%	0.43%	-0.19%	0.14%	0.02%	0.52%
EUR	-0.57%		-0.23%	-0.19%	-0.80%	-0.49%	-0.61%	-0.11%
GBP	-0.35%	0.23%		-0.02%	-0.57%	-0.26%	-0.32%	0.09%
JPY	-0.43%	0.19%	0.02%		-0.56%	-0.34%	-0.37%	0.00%
CAD	0.19%	0.80%	0.57%	0.56%		0.26%	0.13%	0.67%
AUD	-0.14%	0.49%	0.26%	0.34%	-0.26%		-0.11%	0.18%
NZD	-0.02%	0.61%	0.32%	0.37%	-0.13%	0.11%		0.47%
CHF	-0.52%	0.11%	-0.09%	-0.00%	-0.67%	-0.18%	-0.47%

Percentage movements between the major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. Selecting the US Dollar on the left and following its row across to the Japanese Yen, for instance, gives the percentage change for USD (base)/JPY (quote) in the corresponding cell.