Euro Slips from Intraday High as US Dollar Recovers Ahead of German HICP Data

• Euro retreats towards 1.1188 from 1.1215 as the US Dollar recovers.
• July-September US GDP growth exceeded forecasts.
• October’s preliminary German HICP figures are firmly in investors’ focus.

With US third-quarter GDP growth exceeding expectations, the Euro (EUR) has surrendered most of Friday’s early advance against the US Dollar (USD). Having failed to push beyond 1.1215, EUR/USD has pulled back to around 1.1188 in European trading, although it remains 0.11% higher.

A recovery in the US Dollar, which has recouped most of its earlier losses, is weighing on the pair. Strong economic growth in the United States (US), alongside concerns about high inflation, has reinforced the case for an interest rate rise by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in December.

Having rebounded from an intraday low of 101.59, the US Dollar Index (DXY) stands near 101.72 at the time of writing, still down 0.1%. The index measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies.

Thursday’s preliminary US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) release for Q3 surpassed expectations. According to Commerzbank economists, the US economy “expanded strongly by 3.4% in the third quarter of 2026,” with the advance Q3 GDP estimate at “3.4% qoq annualised (Bloomberg consensus: 3.2%) vs 2.2% in Q2.” Explaining the strength of the figures, they observe that “private consumption was the main driver and expanded 3.8%, at the same pace as Q2,” and that “business investment, particularly in IT,” also made a significant contribution.

Separately, US core PCE inflation accelerated to 3.1% year-on-year (YoY) from August’s 3%, matching expectations. This measure excludes volatile food and energy items and is a preferred inflation gauge of the Fed.

For the Euro, attention now turns to Germany’s preliminary Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) release for October, due at 13:00 GMT. Annual headline HICP inflation is forecast to ease to 3.1% year-on-year (YoY), compared with 3.3% in September.

EUR/USD Remains Below Its Short-Term EMA

Trading at 1.1199 on the daily chart, EUR/USD retains a modestly bearish short-term bias beneath its 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) of 1.1223. Failure to regain this EMA indicates that the scope for gains remains limited for now. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recently stabilised after oversold readings, its level of 42 remains below the neutral threshold of 50, signalling muted bullish momentum.

The 20-period EMA near 1.1223 provides the first resistance on any advance. Continued rejection there would probably preserve the bearish bias, favouring either further consolidation or another test of recent lows. To alleviate selling pressure and allow a more pronounced corrective rebound, the pair would need a decisive daily close above this average; momentum indicators would then be likely to improve alongside the price.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)