Dow Jones futures advance as cheaper oil eases inflation concerns

• Inflation releases and AI company earnings are due this week, leaving US index futures mixed as traders await the updates.
• A board investigation into a reported affair targeting CEO Jensen Huang for espionage puts Nvidia under pressure.
• Possible Democratic moves to tighten AI regulation and curb data centre expansion remain in focus for markets.

A 0.65% rise takes Dow Jones futures to around 51,720 in Monday’s European trading session. S&P 500 futures are up 0.30% at around 7,420, while Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.12% at around 27,050.

Lower energy prices and concerns about inflation form the backdrop to mixed trading in US stock futures. Crude oil retreated following comments from US President Donald Trump that additional military action against Iran is "highly unlikely," provided progress continues on Iran’s nuclear programme and the Strait of Hormuz stays open. Trump also acknowledged that the unpopular Middle East conflict had earlier pushed up energy costs and helped drive recent Republican losses in the midterm elections.

With important inflation releases and results from leading AI-related technology companies due this week, investors prepared for the updates while assessing renewed corporate uncertainty at Nvidia. The company looks set to stay in sharp focus after its board opened an independent investigation into allegations that CEO Jensen Huang had been targeted by a Chinese honey trap operation.

Results due over the course of the week from major technology businesses, including CoreWeave, Cisco, and Applied Materials, will provide more insight into demand across the AI sector and its growth prospects. For signals on the Federal Reserve’s forthcoming interest rate decisions, investors are also paying close attention to Tuesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release and Friday’s Producer Price Index (PPI).

Growing investor unease that Democrats might seek tighter AI rules and potentially limit data centre expansion was the main force behind last week’s widespread selling on Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.93%, the S&P 500 shed 2.68%, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite declined 3.37%.

Recent data leave Fed rate rise expectations intact

Further tightening this year is already firmly signalled in the Fed’s own projections, according to analysts at Commerzbank Research. As they observe, “of the 18 Fed officials who submitted projections for the appropriate path of interest rates in September, 16 anticipated at least one more rate hike this year,” adding that “the data released since then are unlikely to have changed that assessment materially.” They believe strong October payrolls, together with inflation that remains elevated, strengthen the argument for a further 25 basis point rise at December’s FOMC meeting, consistent with the Fed’s previous guidance.