Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC pullback continues despite ETF inflows amid risk-off sentiment

• Modest losses this week leave Bitcoin on course for a third successive weekly fall as its correction continues.
• Net inflows of $442.67 million through Thursday put US-listed spot ETFs on course to end two weeks of outflows.
• BTC’s scope for gains remains constrained as intensifying Middle East tensions, higher oil prices and worries about inflation and AI expenditure curb risk appetite.

Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attracted net inflows of $442.67 million through Thursday, signalling a tentative return of institutional demand. Nevertheless, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to face pressure, trading at around $81,800 on Friday with modest losses for the week so far.

Caution remains warranted for traders, however. Growing tensions in the Middle East, climbing oil prices and unease over inflation and AI spending are restraining appetite for risk and limiting the Crypto King’s recovery.

Institutional buying shows tentative signs of returning

Net inflows into spot ETFs reached $442.67 million through Thursday, according to SoSoValue, leaving the funds poised to end a two-week run of outflows. The figures point to some resilience in institutional demand for Bitcoin this week. A continuation and strengthening of those inflows on Friday could help BTC recover.

Thursday also brought an announcement from BIT Asset Management AG, BIT’s wholly owned Swiss asset management subsidiary, that the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) had approved the Bitcoin Fund ETF (BBIT).

FINMA confirmed that the product is Switzerland’s first exchange-traded fund to invest directly in Bitcoin. It is also currently the only spot Bitcoin ETF in Europe. Trading on the SIX Swiss Exchange is expected to start in November. By widening institutional access to BTC, the launch could support broader adoption and bolster the Crypto King’s longer-term prospects.

Inflation concerns restrain BTC’s recovery

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed above $100 per barrel this week, following a rise of over 8% the week before, as persistent Middle East tensions pushed energy prices higher.

A sharp escalation in fighting between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi movement has brought Houthi drone and missile attacks on the kingdom’s airports and vital energy infrastructure. 

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has also said renewed US attacks could lead Tehran to invade neighbouring countries and strike bases supporting US military operations under its new offensive strategy. The statement follows a report that the US and Israel have prepared plans for a brief but intense military campaign against Iran after the US midterm elections.

Together, these developments are sustaining the geopolitical risk premium and pushing oil prices higher. Fears that inflation expectations could accelerate further have consequently weighed on risk appetite, restricting BTC’s recovery.

Concerns over elevated AI spending shape Bitcoin’s price prospects

The AI investment boom appears to be drawing liquidity away from other markets, including fixed income and cryptocurrencies, Simon-Peter Massabni, Head of Business Development at XS.com, told FXStreet in an exclusive interview. Bitcoin’s difficulty keeping up with a stock market that continues to set record highs reflects the concentration of capital in AI-related investments and technology shares.

Concerns about the sustainability of AI spending returned this week, Simon-Peter explained, following comments from IBM Chief Executive Officer Arvind Krishna. Despite the company’s better-than-expected results, Krishna warned that corporate clients are increasingly asking whether substantial AI investments will deliver tangible returns.

For Bitcoin, the consequences will hinge on how those concerns evolve, according to Massabni. Continued strong earnings and sustained AI investment by Big Tech companies could preserve the appeal of related shares, diverting liquidity from cryptocurrencies and postponing BTC’s recovery. 

That outcome could also prolong the current stop-start pattern: traders enter to capture short-term gains, then withdraw as doubts about the recovery’s sustainability return. Spot Bitcoin funds illustrated this behaviour, attracting $1 billion in inflows earlier this week before losing more than $600 million yesterday alone.

Conversely, mounting unease over AI spending and greater scrutiny of returns on large technology investments could prompt an equity correction, channelling some capital into Bitcoin. If that correction stays contained without triggering broader economic deterioration, renewed buying could emerge in Bitcoin, which already trades nearly 35% below its all-time high, helping the wider cryptocurrency market recover.

A more severe, extreme scenario would involve the AI bubble bursting as major indices plunge beyond bear-market territory. Results falling drastically short of investors’ optimistic expectations, alongside a deteriorating geopolitical situation in the Middle East where further escalation could produce even greater oil-market shocks, could drive steep falls in shares and cryptocurrencies alike. Even at those lower prices, the risk may appear unappealing given the sheer scale of the surrounding uncertainties.

Massabni concluded: “Over the next few days, I expect Bitcoin to remain sideways, with the potential for further downside and a break below the $80,000 level, as the heavy focus on geopolitical factors amid the deteriorating situation in the Middle East may prevent Bitcoin from benefiting from capital rotation,”

Bitcoin technical outlook: Modest weakness persists

After two successive weeks of correction, the Crypto King is trading at around $81,800 on Friday, with further modest losses recorded this week.

A continuation of BTC’s correction could take it towards $78,661, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rise from the August 2024 low of $49,000 to the October 2025 record high of $126,199. That level roughly coincides with the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $76,126.

On the weekly chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to 56 and edging down towards the neutral 50 mark, signalling easing bullish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, meanwhile, is still positive but its bars are diminishing. Overall upward momentum therefore remains intact, although nearby resistance and the continuing pullback are sapping its strength.

Should BTC recover instead, the advance could reach the 50% retracement at $87,823, followed by the 100-week SMA at $89,570.

BTC retains a constructive near-term bullish bias on the daily chart, with the price holding above its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), at $80,877, $77,528 and $76,185 respectively. These averages cluster below the spot price, suggesting a well-supported uptrend. However, the daily RSI of around 47 indicates that momentum has cooled towards neutral. A negative MACD histogram and a reading below zero likewise point to a fragile bullish tone, rather than a forceful breakout phase.

The first obstacle to further gains is the horizontal resistance around $85,000, where previous supply could limit the advance.

Immediate downside support lies around the 50-day EMA at $80,877. If corrective pressure persists, the 100-day EMA at $77,528 and the 200-day EMA at $76,185 provide deeper structural support.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)