Bitcoin vs Gold: US S&P Services PMI softens as BTC edges up near $82K and XAU tests $4,000

• With short-term support from the 59-day EMA, Bitcoin gains momentum around $82,000.
• Weaker momentum indicators and mounting geopolitical tensions weigh on Gold, pushing it below $4,000.
• October’s US S&P Global Services PMI slips to 57.9 from 58.8 in September.

The $82,000 immediate resistance level is coming into view for Bitcoin (BTC), which leads a broad advance in cryptocurrency prices on Friday. Firm structural support suggests that the path of least resistance remains to the upside.

Closing above $82,000 on the daily chart would strengthen the near-term bullish case and increase the likelihood of a recovery towards $84,000 in the short term, followed by $87,000 over the medium term.

Heavy selling pressure is bearing down on Gold (XAU), although the crucial $4,000 level continues to provide support. Waning investor interest and a reduced appetite for risk are reflected in the metal’s performance, as the Middle East faces the prospect of another war between the United States (US) and Iran.

US S&P Global Services PMI slows in October

October brought further growth in US private-sector business activity, preliminary figures published on Friday by S&P Global showed.

At 56 in October, the S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) edged up from September’s 55.9 and exceeded the market forecast of 55.6. Services PMI, by contrast, slowed from 58.8 in September to 57.9, matching expectations.

Combining activity across manufacturing and services, the Composite PMI fell to 57.6 in October against 58.4 a month earlier.

Wednesday’s Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision follows the release of these figures. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a near 90% probability that the central bank will leave rates within the 3.75-4.00% range. A rate increase is expected by just 10.5% of interest rate traders.

US economic activity has remained resilient despite mounting geopolitical tensions lifting Oil prices, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) above $101.00 on Friday. The outcome of Wednesday’s meeting will help determine the outlook through year-end, while market participants are already assigning a higher probability to a December rate increase.

In an analysis report sent by email, Crypto Finance said: “The FOMC meets 27-28 October, with the decision on Wednesday, 28 October. With inflation risk still elevated but risk assets already tightening financial conditions themselves, the market will be watching closely for any shift in the Fed's reaction function,”

Technical analysis: Bitcoin buyers regain ground

At $81,988, Bitcoin continues to recover above a tightly grouped set of moving averages providing support, leaving the near-term outlook constructive. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $80,884 remains below the price, with the 100-day and 200-day EMAs at $77,532 and $76,184 underpinning the wider bullish structure.

Downward moves appear cushioned by the SuperTrend line at $79,664, which stands comfortably below the spot price. However, a Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading close to 48 indicates neutral momentum, while the negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading suggests that upward momentum is easing rather than gathering pace.

The first support level is the 50-day EMA around $80,884. A deeper retreat would bring the SuperTrend baseline near $79,664 into focus as the next technical floor. Further down, the 100-day EMA at $77,532 and the 200-day EMA at $76,184 form a broader demand zone whose defence is necessary to maintain the prevailing bullish outlook. Should a daily close fall below this cluster, the trend would weaken materially, creating scope for a more substantial correction.

Gold technical analysis: Selling pressure persists for XAU

Trading at $4,019, Gold retains a bearish short-term bias below descending trendline resistance at $4,091. A closely grouped band of EMAs and the SuperTrend indicator also sits above the price.

Technical pressure remains pronounced, with the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs at $4,224, $4,284 and $4,287 respectively, alongside the SuperTrend line at $4,223. Meanwhile, the RSI around 35 indicates subdued momentum rather than an oversold capitulation, suggesting scope for additional losses before buyers are compelled to return.

The broken trendline around $4,091 provides the first resistance, followed by the SuperTrend threshold near $4,223 and the 50-day EMA at $4,224. Only a sustained recovery beyond these levels would put the 100-day and 200-day EMAs, grouped just below $4,290, within reach. At that point, the broader bearish structure would start to weaken.

The daily chart offers no clearly defined structural support, meaning a renewed fall would probably seek out fresh demand zones. With the MACD becoming more negative again, rebounds towards the resistance band outlined above remain likely to draw sellers.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)