Glassnode reports Bitcoin volatility down to 2023 lows

• The Fed voted 10-2 to maintain rates at 3.75%-4.00%, with Bitcoin advancing above $81,000.
• A fall in BTC realised losses, from $630 million at the August low to $27 million during the 24 October decline, points to reduced loss-driven selling.
• Average volume of $2.6 billion in Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 markets exceeded the $2.4 billion recorded in its Bitcoin perpetual futures, suggesting traders are likely shifting towards equities.

A 10–2 vote left Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rates unchanged at 3.75%–4.00% on Wednesday, as Bitcoin (BTC) advanced beyond $81,000. The policy decision coincided with a decline in the leading cryptocurrency’s realised volatility to levels last recorded in the summer of 2023.

Bitcoin volatility returns to 2023 levels as realised losses signal reduced selling pressure

Bitcoin’s one-month realised volatility has fallen to around 25%, below its usual range over the past year, according to Glassnode’s Wednesday report. Only around 5% of days since 2015 have seen lower Bitcoin volatility.

Sharp price movements followed the previous two volatility lows, Glassnode observed. An August 2023 fall in volatility to 18% was followed by a steep Bitcoin decline; by contrast, an August 2026 drop to 22% came ahead of a price rise.

Ahead of the Fed announcement, Glassnode cautioned that a prolonged period of low volatility could leave Bitcoin exposed to a sizeable move after the policy decision.

Alongside the drop in volatility, realised losses have also diminished. Investors have crystallised smaller losses during recent market pullbacks, indicating a considerable easing in selling pressure from holders at a loss compared with earlier downturns.

At the August low, daily net realised losses stood at around $630 million, according to Glassnode. The largest daily net loss during Bitcoin’s 24 October decline was $27 million.

After $80,000 bids on Binance’s spot order book failed to reappear following the 24 October sell-off, Glassnode highlighted 78,000-79,000 as Bitcoin’s next significant support zone.

Buy orders at $80,000 had dwindled to just $3.4 million. In contrast, bids in the $78,000 to $79,000 range amounted to roughly $42 million, compared with $24 million in mid-October.

Accumulation by short-term holders (STH) around $77,000 provides another possible support level should prices fall further, the report found. Another cluster of coins acquired around $64,000 represents buying close to the 2026 lows.

Traders redirect speculative activity towards equities

On Hyperliquid, daily trading volumes in stock and commodity perpetual futures have overtaken those in Bitcoin perpetuals, pointing to a shift in speculative activity beyond cryptocurrencies.

Over the past week, daily turnover in Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 markets averaged around $2.6 billion, Glassnode reported. These markets offer perpetual futures contracts for speculation on stocks, indices and commodities. By comparison, average daily volume in the platform’s Bitcoin perpetual futures was about $2.4 billion.

HIP-3 activity has therefore recovered from the volume decline that followed an August market squeeze. Having exceeded Bitcoin perpetual volume by more than three times at the beginning of that month, HIP-3 turnover fell to around half the Bitcoin level by late August.

Among the busiest individual markets were SK Hynix, the S&P 500, a technology index and Crude Oil.

The report stated: “Should this volume keep growing while Bitcoin perpetual volume stays flat, it would show speculative money still favoring stocks,”