Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC declines as ETF inflows fail to outweigh geopolitical uncertainty

• A decline of more than 2% on Thursday leaves Bitcoin at risk of surrendering most of its gains from earlier in the week.
• Wednesday’s $528.40 million inflow into US-listed Bitcoin funds extended this week’s run of positive flows to three consecutive days.
• BTC’s recovery remains constrained as mounting tensions in the Middle East curb appetite for risk.

A fall of more than 2% has taken Bitcoin (BTC) below $83,000 at the time of writing on Thursday, putting its gains from earlier this week at risk. Institutional demand nevertheless continues to provide support: spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have now attracted inflows for a third consecutive day this week. 

Caution remains warranted for traders, however, as intensifying tensions in the Middle East weaken risk appetite and limit the Crypto King’s recovery.

Institutional flows regain momentum

An inflow of $528.40 million into BTC spot ETFs on Wednesday extended the current sequence to three consecutive days of inflows this week, according to SoSoValue data, pointing to a revival in institutional demand. By Wednesday, weekly inflows had also surpassed $1 billion, reversing two consecutive weeks of outflows. A continuation and acceleration of these inflows over the rest of the week could allow BTC to build on its rebound.

Further support came on Thursday from BIT Asset Management AG, BIT’s wholly owned Swiss asset management subsidiary, which announced approval of the Bitcoin Fund ETF (BBIT) by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA).

FINMA confirmed that no previous exchange-traded fund in Switzerland has invested directly in Bitcoin. Currently Europe’s only spot Bitcoin ETF, the fund is expected to start trading on the SIX Swiss Exchange in November.

By widening institutional access to BTC, the launch could foster broader adoption and reinforce the Crypto King’s longer-term prospects.

Middle East tensions constrain BTC’s rebound

Four vessels involved in illegal oil transfers in the northern Persian Gulf were struck simultaneously and caught fire on Wednesday after being tracked by Iranian forces, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy said on Thursday, according to Reuters.

A further three vessels hit mines west of the Strait of Hormuz, the IRGC added. It also warned the US military that further provocations could prompt a broader response against its bases in the region.

Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, meanwhile said the country was ready for diplomacy, while stressing that it was also prepared to defend itself. 

With the US showing no willingness to reach an understanding, Araghchi added, there was little reason to anticipate progress now. 

In a separate report, The New York Times said plans for a brief but intensive military campaign against Iran after the US midterm elections had been drawn up by the US and Israel.

Together, these developments sustain the geopolitical risk premium, curbing risk appetite and limiting BTC’s recovery.

Bitcoin technical outlook: BTC retreats after rejection at $85,000

At $82,287 at the time of writing on Thursday, Bitcoin retains a constructive bias. The price continues to sit above the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), which are grouped between roughly $80,900 and $76,100. 

Although this EMA alignment points to an intact broader uptrend, momentum indicators suggest the advance has lost impetus. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 49 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is negative, indicating consolidation rather than an impulsive move higher.

The horizontal barrier around $85,000 provides the nearest upside resistance. A break above it would open the way towards fresh highs and could restore bullish momentum. 

Initial downside support lies at the 50-day EMA around $80,873. Below that, the 100-day EMA near $77,458 and the 200-day EMA near $76,138 define a deeper demand zone; a failure of this zone would be needed to materially weaken the prevailing bullish structure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)