AUD/USD breaches 0.6950 as NASDAQ sell-off puts key 0.6900 support at risk

• Having breached 0.6950, AUD/USD falls more than 1% to 0.6931.
• A decline of more than 5.52% in the Nasdaq 100 sparks broad risk aversion.
• Strong US employment figures and expectations of an RBA pause weigh on the Aussie before NFP.

Strong US employment figures supported the US Dollar ahead of Friday’s key Nonfarm Payrolls release, while deteriorating risk appetite and a sell-off in US technology shares sent the Australian Dollar down more than 1% on Thursday. Having reached a high of 0.7024, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6931.

AUD/USD slides towards the lower end of its range as technology shares slump and Fed officials sound hawkish

A fall of more than 5.52% in the NASDAQ 100 during the session helped drive a risk-off mood as US equities slumped. A CNBC headline described the index as dropping “into correction territory”. The backdrop includes mounting speculation that the Democrats controlling the US Congress may seek AI regulation, alongside the possibility of a slowdown in data centres.

Initial Jobless Claims declined to 189K in the week ending 31 October, against expectations of 196K, signalling solid US data. October’s Challenger Job Cuts reading stood at 43.994K, down from 43,281, representing a 2% increase. Nevertheless, companies intend to recruit over 444,692 workers in October, 57% more than the 2025 figures.

The Greenback also found support in hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.  A gradual approach to rate increases is favoured by Cleveland Fed Beth Hammack, who stressed that further work remains for the Fed. Speaking later, Richmond Fed Thomas Barkin echoed Hammack’s preference for gradual action, saying that “broad-based” inflation is still too high.

Against this backdrop, a decisive break through 0.7000 intensified AUD/USD’s slide below 0.6950. The pair remains in consolidation despite the decline, although its position at the lower end of the 0.6900-0.7030 range raises the likelihood of further bearish movement.

CME’s FedWatch tool puts the probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the Federal Reserve’s December meeting at 66%, compared with 82% a day earlier, as traders further pare back hawkish bets.

Although Friday’s Australian economic calendar is empty, signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have led investors to remove further rate increases from their pricing. According to Prime Terminal, they now anticipate unchanged RBA rates at least until the monetary policy meeting on 22 June 2027.

Next on the US calendar are October’s Nonfarm Payrolls report and Unemployment Rate, alongside the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Bearish bias persists in the technical outlook

Trading at 0.6928 on the daily chart, AUD/USD retains a bearish short-term bias below a cluster of simple moving averages (SMA), whose latest composite reading is near 0.7050. A series of upward-sloping trend-line projections, spanning approximately 0.7120 to 0.7470, also sits above the price and now provides resistance. This suggests the market remains constrained despite a rebound from oversold conditions earlier in the month. At around 39, the 14-period Relative Strength Index indicates weak but stabilising downside momentum: selling pressure has eased, yet sellers remain in control.

The first upside hurdle is the triple SMA area near 0.7050, ahead of an ascending trend line around 0.7123 and a more significant horizontal resistance level at 0.7198. To soften the prevailing bearish structure, a daily close above these barriers would be required. Below the market, a shorter-term rising trend line near 0.6923 provides immediate support. Should sustained selling return, a deeper structural support level lies near the previous downtrend reference around 0.6347.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)