AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Bearish bias persists below 100-day SMA despite holding gains near 111.00

• Around 110.90, AUD/JPY remains in positive territory in early Asian trading on Monday.
• Trading beneath the 100-day SMA leaves the cross with a bearish bias.
• Resistance first comes into view at 111.45, while 110.50 marks the nearest support to monitor.

Mounting expectations of an imminent RBA interest rate rise are lending some support to the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). AUD/JPY is trading higher at around 110.90 in Monday’s early European session, with traders awaiting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy meeting later on Tuesday.

A fifth increase in the Official Cash Rate (OCR) this year is expected from the RBA. In Bloomberg’s survey, almost all economists anticipate that the nine-member board will raise rates by 25 basis points (bps) tomorrow. That would take the OCR to 4.85%, its highest in 18 years.

The possibility of currency intervention by Japanese authorities continues to keep traders on alert, as such action might strengthen the JPY and limit gains in the cross. Speaking on Monday, Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the joint FX statement with the US remains in place and that the government will counter disorderly moves. She also stressed the importance of stable foreign exchange markets and the need for the government to avoid chaotic fluctuations.

RBA expected to raise rates before pausing as TD Securities highlights upside inflation risks

TD Securities believes that “the risks to inflation are tilted to the upside in Q4,” which is “likely to encourage markets to price in some chance of a follow-up hike in Q1 of 2027.” Nevertheless, its forecast is for a pause following next week’s expected increase: “after next week's anticipated hike, we forecast the Bank moving to the sidelines to assess the impact of the series of rate hikes to date.” Explaining that view, TD Securities says “the lags in policy and signs of slowing economic activity should keep the Bank on hold in 2027 with cuts to commence in 2028.” Its strategists also note that “the Monetary policy bias table below is not too different from what we presented ahead of the September RBA meeting,” adding that “this time we expect” persistent upside inflation risks to reinforce the RBA’s hawkish rhetoric, even as policy moves towards an extended pause.

Technical Analysis: AUD/JPY stays under pressure beneath the 100-day SMA

Despite the recent rebound, AUD/JPY remains beneath its 100-day simple moving average (SMA) on the daily chart, leaving gains constrained and the tone mildly bearish. Consolidation continues within the Bollinger Bands: the price sits above the middle band, but selling pressure awaits near the upper band. At around 52, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) points to neutral to slightly improving momentum, which has not yet overcome the prevailing structural resistance.

The upper Bollinger Band near 111.45 provides the first resistance, ahead of the 100-day SMA at 111.95. Restoring a bullish short-term bias would require a daily close above the latter level. Beyond it, the next obstacle is the 18 August high of 113.61. 

The middle Bollinger Band around 110.50 offers immediate support, with the psychological 110.00 level next in line. Further support lies at the lower Bollinger Band at 109.50; a break beneath that boundary would clear the way for a more pronounced extension of the bearish move.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)