Below $102.00: WTI holds steady as hopes for diplomacy counter Middle East supply risks

• $101.85 remains WTI’s trading level in early Asian trading on Friday.
• Iran receives outreach from US Vice President Vance, WSJ reports.
• Six missile and drone attacks hit oil facilities, airports and a military position across Saudi Arabia, the Houthis say.

$101.85 is the approximate price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) in early Asian trading on Friday. The US crude oil benchmark is little changed as hopes for US-Iran peace negotiations counter some concerns over Middle East supplies.

In a bid to restart peace negotiations, US Vice President JD Vance contacted Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, on Wednesday, The Wall Street Journal reported. US President Trump said he had authorised Vance's approach, stating that they “need help with medical supplies and various things.”

Hopes for peace talks between the US and Iran remain in focus for traders. They are also weighing the threat to Middle East supplies as the regional conflict escalates.

Three ballistic missile attacks targeted the Ras Tanura refinery, Saudi Aramco facilities in Abqaiq and the Rabigh refinery, Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis said on Thursday. Ras Tanura and Abqaiq are in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province, while Rabigh lies on the country's Red Sea coast.

Two further operations targeted airports, according to Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea. Missiles were directed at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, the Saudi capital, while a drone targeted King Fahd International Airport in Dammam, in the Eastern Province.

John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, said: “Those reports of a new spate of attacks helped oil recoup some losses later in the session,”

Oil cautiously optimistic; Middle East risks and energy inflation weigh on central banks

For Rabobank analysts, “uncertainty about the Middle East conflict continues to linger over markets,” while President Trump keeps “the option of escalation after the midterms on the table.” According to the analysts, US officials have reportedly told several regional allies “to prepare for potential military strikes after the US polls, and the possibility that Iran may retaliate.”

Diplomacy remains active, however, with Rabobank highlighting “reports of ongoing diplomatic efforts.” The analysts cite the Wall Street Journal's account that Vice President Vance has “reached out to the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council,” reportedly at Trump's request “in an attempt to restart diplomatic channels.”

Rabobank's assessment is that “oil markets currently seem to be trading the cautiously optimistic side of this binary outcome,” against a backdrop in which “the protracted energy inflation has global central bankers less optimistic.”

100-day SMA underpins WTI’s constructive technical outlook

Holding comfortably above both the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 20-day Bollinger Bands middle SMA, WTI US Oil retains a bullish bias on the daily chart. The contract is moving towards the upper Bollinger Band. At 63.84, the Relative Strength Index (14) remains in bullish territory without reaching overbought levels. This points to constructive upward momentum, although periods of consolidation remain a risk.

The upper Bollinger Band at $105.55 marks immediate resistance, with another push higher by buyers potentially attracting fresh supply. Initial support sits near $96.15 at the 20-day Bollinger Bands middle SMA. Below that, the lower Bollinger Band at $86.78 and the 100-day SMA at $85.50 define a broader demand zone expected to cushion more substantial corrective declines.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)