$95.00 support: WTI Price Forecast sees bulls retaining control above this level amid Mideast jitters

• After sharp swings in both directions the previous day, WTI draws renewed buying interest.
• Persistent Middle East uncertainty supports prices by sustaining the geopolitical risk premium.
• Fresh bullish positions call for caution given the commodity’s technical signals.

$99.00 remains difficult for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to sustain gains above. The US crude oil benchmark finds fresh buying interest in Wednesday’s Asian session but struggles to build on that momentum beyond this level. Prices remain below the previous day’s peak, the highest since September 16, as traders watch for further developments in the Middle East crisis.

A diplomat involved in US-Iran negotiations challenged reports that an agreement was imminent, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday. Separately, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf told Pakistan’s Army Chief, Asim Munir, that the US could not gain Iran’s trust unless it fulfilled previously announced conditions. These included ending all hostilities and unfreezing Iran’s assets. Together, these developments sustain the geopolitical risk premium and underpin crude prices.

Supply disruption concerns also intensified after Iran’s First Vice President said the country had no alternative but to exercise sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. This helped oil extend its overnight recovery from the weekly low. Gains remain constrained, however, by an unconfirmed Tuesday report that Qatar and Pakistan had proposed a compromise plan to the US and Iran that satisfied both sides’ demands. Bullish traders therefore have reason to remain cautious.

Trading above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart keeps the commodity’s near-term outlook bullish. The overnight rebound also confirmed firm support around $95.00, the former resistance breakout level, reinforcing the broader uptrend. Momentum has nevertheless weakened. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has moved further below both zero and its signal line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), at 59.76, has retreated from previously overbought levels.

Consolidation, rather than a clear reversal, appears to be the message from these technical signals. Any substantial decline could therefore continue to attract solid support around the psychological $95.00 level. Below that, structural support lies at the 100-period SMA near $92.26. Within the prevailing bullish backdrop, buyers would be expected to regain control there if the pullback deepens.

Further gains remain possible. A revival in bullish momentum could lift oil towards the psychological $100.00 level, followed by the overnight swing high near the round figure of 101.00. That high could prove a key resistance point. A break above it would be viewed as a fresh bullish trigger, opening the way for the uptrend of the past two weeks or so to extend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

4-hour WTI chart