1.3968 six-week lows tested: USD/CAD Price Forecast as US Dollar weakens

Below 1.3960, USD/CAD reaches fresh six-week lows. The pair falls for a third consecutive day.
Stronger demand for US Treasury bonds drives yields sharply lower, weighing on the US Dollar.
Oil prices close to five-month highs fuel a Canadian Dollar rally

1.3968 marks the six-week low USD/CAD is testing. Friday brings a third consecutive daily decline for the US Dollar (USD) against the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Risk aversion is driving US Treasury yields down, while elevated oil prices support the commodity-sensitive Canadian Dollar. The pair is heading for a loss of more than 2% over a three-week sell-off.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Disappointing results from Google Alphabet have revived fears of an AI bubble. During the US and Asian sessions, investors have moved out of equities and into the safety of US Government Bonds. The retreat in US Treasury yields has deepened, with the US 10-year yield down more than 30 basis points in October, adding to downward pressure on the Greenback.

By contrast, expensive oil, Canada’s main export, continues to underpin the Loonie. Brent Oil holds above 112.00 per barrel and is on course for a monthly gain of nearly 20%. The US and Iran remain far from reaching a peace agreement, while attacks continue on vessels trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Technical Analysis: 1.3900 in Focus Below 1.3968

At around 1.3961, USD/CAD remains in a downtrend. On the 4-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (14) stands at 32.5, close to oversold territory. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) sits just below zero, signalling that sellers retain full control.

If a break below support around 1.3968, the October 23 low, is confirmed, attention would shift to the mid-September lows near 1.3900. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement around 1.3875 would also come into view.

To relieve downward pressure, buyers would need to clear Thursday’s high near the psychological 1.4000 level, followed by the October 21 and 23 highs in the 1.4070-1.4080 zone.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Canadian Dollar: Today’s Currency Performance

Today’s percentage moves in the Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the listed major currencies appear in the table below. Its strongest performance was against the US Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.16%	-0.39%	-0.27%	-0.21%	-0.02%	-0.17%	-0.38%
EUR	0.16%		-0.23%	-0.11%	-0.04%	0.16%	-0.02%	-0.22%
GBP	0.39%	0.23%		0.13%	0.19%	0.38%	0.22%	0.00%
JPY	0.27%	0.11%	-0.13%		0.07%	0.25%	0.09%	-0.11%
CAD	0.21%	0.04%	-0.19%	-0.07%		0.18%	0.03%	-0.18%
AUD	0.02%	-0.16%	-0.38%	-0.25%	-0.18%		-0.16%	-0.36%
NZD	0.17%	0.02%	-0.22%	-0.09%	-0.03%	0.16%		-0.20%
CHF	0.38%	0.22%	-0.01%	0.11%	0.18%	0.36%	0.20%

Percentage movements between the major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, choosing the Canadian Dollar on the left and following its row across to the US Dollar gives the percentage change for CAD (base)/USD (quote) in the corresponding cell.