Solana Price Forecast: SOL downside risk grows as ETF outflows persist

• 8% was Solana’s loss last week. The decline breached a crucial support level and marked its fifth consecutive weekly fall, leaving SOL below $90 on Monday.
• Over $26 million flowed out of SOL-focused ETFs last week, extending selling pressure into a fifth consecutive week.
• Falling funding rates and SOL futures Open Interest point to weakening retail interest.

$90 remains above Solana’s (SOL) trading price on Monday. The token is edging higher after losing over 3% the previous day and slipping below a long-term support trendline. Its steady five-week decline has coincided with five consecutive weeks of outflows from Solana-focused Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), totalling over $150 million. Retail participation is also weakening. Persistent position unwinding has pushed Open Interest to a two-month low, while a negative funding rate reinforces the sustained bias towards selling.

Continued selling pressure leaves Solana technically vulnerable to a fall towards $77.

$26.25 million in ETF outflows adds to SOL pressure as Open Interest falls

ETF withdrawals and falling Open Interest (OI) are among several bearish signals pointing to further downside risk for Solana. SoSoValue data shows nearly $170 million has left Solana ETFs over the last five weeks. That includes $26.25 million last week and the largest weekly outflow of $71.47 million in the previous month. Against a backdrop of wider market uncertainty, these substantial redemptions indicate weakening institutional demand for Solana.

Meanwhile, SOL futures OI stood at $5.10 billion on Monday, according to CoinGlass, its lowest level since August 19. Positions have been steadily unwound since OI reached a high of $7.62 billion on October 8. This reduction in positions has coincided with falling spot prices and ETF withdrawals, suggesting that ETF outflows are the main catalyst for the continuing correction. A week of ETF inflows could signal a potential trend reversal for traders awaiting a SOL rebound.

At -0.0033%, however, the funding rate indicates a near-term selling bias, with traders prepared to pay a premium to take short positions. Sunday’s long liquidations of $33.64 million also exceeded short liquidations of $1.35 million, underscoring the greater selling pressure. 

$80 in focus: SOL’s technical outlook

At press time on Monday, Solana is trading at $87.60, continuing the steady decline that began in early October. Last week’s 8% fall extended October’s 19% drop. SOL moved below both the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $99.26 and the long-term rising trendline near $90.41 that links the June 6 and August 1 lows. The falling 50-day EMA, at $100.35, is also at risk of moving beneath the 200-day EMA. Such a formation, commonly known as a death cross, would confirm a bearish trend reversal.

Daily momentum indicators remain weak. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near oversold territory at 29, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative. Despite stretched conditions, these readings suggest that downward pressure has yet to run its course.

The nearest downside support is the horizontal level at $87.46, just below the current market price. Beyond that lies a more significant demand zone around $77.60. A sustained breach of that zone would bring deeper support at $67.50 and $60.13 into view, where the base of the broader uptrend from previous months converges.

Any recovery would first encounter resistance near $90.41, where the former trendline was breached, before reaching the horizontal barrier at $95.82.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)