20-day EMA: AUD/USD consolidates above key level as focus turns to Fed policy

Near 0.7020, AUD/USD edges higher as the Australian currency leads most peers.
Wednesday’s Australian Q3 CPI release and Fed policy decision are in sharp focus for investors.
Expectations are for the Fed to maintain its interest rate range at 3.75%-4.00%.

AUD/USD trades marginally higher around 0.7020. During Tuesday’s European session, the Australian Dollar (AUD) gains slightly against the US Dollar (USD), supported by its outperformance against other currencies apart from the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).

Australian Dollar Leads Euro in Today’s Trading

Today’s percentage moves in the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the major currencies listed appear in the table below. Its largest gain was against the Euro.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.19%	0.17%	0.16%	0.04%	-0.09%	-0.17%	0.08%
EUR	-0.19%		-0.01%	0.02%	-0.14%	-0.27%	-0.37%	-0.09%
GBP	-0.17%	0.01%		0.02%	-0.12%	-0.26%	-0.33%	-0.07%
JPY	-0.16%	-0.02%	-0.02%		-0.13%	-0.27%	-0.35%	-0.10%
CAD	-0.04%	0.14%	0.12%	0.13%		-0.14%	-0.22%	0.05%
AUD	0.09%	0.27%	0.26%	0.27%	0.14%		-0.08%	0.19%
NZD	0.17%	0.37%	0.33%	0.35%	0.22%	0.08%		0.28%
CHF	-0.08%	0.09%	0.07%	0.10%	-0.05%	-0.19%	-0.28%

Percentage movements between major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, choosing the Australian Dollar on the left and following that row across to the US Dollar gives the percentage change for AUD (base)/USD (quote).

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

With financial markets awaiting Wednesday’s monetary policy decision from the Federal Reserve (Fed), however, AUD/USD is expected to trade flat.

2027 tightening outlook: RBC sees gradual hikes after expected Fed hold

An unchanged policy stance at this week’s meeting is the expectation of analysts at Royal Bank of Canada. They say the “Federal Reserve … expected to hold the fed funds target range unchanged on Wednesday after hiking for the first time since 2023 in September.” September’s increase restarted the tightening cycle, though RBC highlights the likely measured pace: “FOMC members continue to signal that more hikes will follow, but comments after the last decision suggest a gradual approach.” The bank maintains its forecast, stating that “we expect two 25-basis-point rate hikes ahead before the end of Q1 2027.”

Also on this week’s agenda are Thursday’s Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures and September Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data. Investors will closely monitor these releases alongside Q3 results from hyperscalers including Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft.

Australia’s Q3 Consumer Price Index (CPI), due on Wednesday, is another focus for investors. Inflation is forecast to accelerate to 1.3%, compared with the previous reading of 0.6%.

0.7021: AUD/USD Technical Outlook Remains Mildly Bullish

At 0.7021 on the daily chart, AUD/USD retains a slightly positive near-term outlook. Trading just above the 9-period exponential moving average (EMA) of 0.7006 points to an early recovery following the recent retreat. A Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 51.5, marginally above neutral, signals modest upward momentum while remaining outside overbought territory.

Immediate downside support lies at the 9-period EMA of 0.7006. On the upside, the high of 26 October at 0.7040 represents the main barrier. A break above 0.7040 would mark the start of another upward leg.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Data Release

Consumer Price Index: Quarterly Change (QoQ)

Published quarterly by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks price movements in a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by households. Each quarterly CPI figure is the average of the three corresponding monthly CPIs. The QoQ measure compares prices with those in the preceding quarter. A higher reading is regarded as positive for the Australian Dollar (AUD), whereas a lower reading is regarded as negative.

Explore further.

Next publication: Wed 28 Oct 2026 00:30

Release frequency: Every quarter

Consensus forecast: 1.3%

Previous reading: 0.6%

Published by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

CPI: Why Traders Watch

The data is published nearly 25 days after quarter-end. Issued quarterly by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the Consumer Price Index (CPI) significantly influences markets and the AUD’s valuation. To fulfil its inflation mandate, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monitors the measure closely, giving it major implications for monetary policy. Higher consumer prices typically support the AUD, as the RBA could raise interest rates to keep inflation at its target.