EUR/USD Price Forecast: Monthly outlook mixed, daily chart remains bearish

The Euro is set to end September more than 2% lower as the US Dollar stays firm.
On the monthly chart, EUR/USD holds above the 50- and 100-period SMAs but remains below the 200-period SMA
The daily outlook remains bearish, although an oversold RSI raises the risk of a corrective bounce.

EUR/USD remains on the defensive on Wednesday as a broadly stronger US Dollar (USD) weighs on the pair, leaving the Euro on track for a loss of more than 2% in September. At the time of writing, EUR/USD trades around 1.1337, close to Tuesday’s low of 1.1312, its weakest level since May 2025.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Euro Price This Month

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this month. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		2.49%	2.14%	-1.51%	2.65%	3.13%	5.02%	3.33%
EUR	-2.49%		-0.33%	-3.89%	0.18%	0.63%	2.48%	0.83%
GBP	-2.14%	0.33%		-3.59%	0.49%	0.96%	2.83%	1.19%
JPY	1.51%	3.89%	3.59%		4.22%	4.72%	6.60%	4.99%
CAD	-2.65%	-0.18%	-0.49%	-4.22%		0.49%	2.27%	0.67%
AUD	-3.13%	-0.63%	-0.96%	-4.72%	-0.49%		1.82%	0.22%
NZD	-5.02%	-2.48%	-2.83%	-6.60%	-2.27%	-1.82%		-1.65%
CHF	-3.33%	-0.83%	-1.19%	-4.99%	-0.67%	-0.22%	1.65%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Technical Analysis: Monthly chart

On the monthly chart, the technical picture remains mixed. EUR/USD trades above the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1008 and the 100-period SMA at 1.1200, while remaining capped well below the 200-period SMA near 1.1838

Momentum indicators offer little directional conviction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the neutral 50 level, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped slightly into negative territory. This suggests that the broader structure remains supported, but upward momentum has weakened.

Daily chart

The daily chart presents a more bearish picture, with EUR/USD trading well below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day SMAs clustered between 1.1521 and 1.1614. The RSI has fallen deep into oversold territory near 23, while the MACD remains below zero. Selling pressure therefore remains dominant, although oversold conditions leave the pair vulnerable to a short-covering bounce.

On the topside, initial resistance appears at the 1.1400 psychological mark, followed by 1.1470. A stronger recovery would bring the 100-day SMA at 1.1521 and the 50-day SMA at 1.1532 into focus. Above these levels, the 200-day SMA at 1.1614 and the horizontal barrier near 1.1700 form a broader resistance zone.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 1.1312. A decisive break below this level would reinforce the bearish trend and open the door to further losses. However, holding above 1.1312 could allow oversold conditions to trigger a corrective recovery toward the nearby resistance levels.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro FAQs

What is the Euro?

The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Monthly outlook mixed, daily chart remains bearish