Cybercab Becomes A New Battlefield For Bulls And Bears, Tesla Valuation Battles Shift Tracks, And Autonomous Driving Team Data Sets A New Benchmark On Wall Street!

Records from the Texas Department of Motor Vehicles show that on October 8, Tesla registered 150 new Cybercabs in a single day, bringing the total from 169 to 319, the largest single-day increase since the model entered the registry on August 31; Combined with 420 modified Model Ys, Tesla's autonomous vehicle fleet in Texas has expanded to about 739 vehicles.

Previously, Tesla reported third-quarter deliveries exceeding expectations, which drove the stock price up nearly 5% in a single day, but deliveries still fell about 2% year-on-year; As of early October, the stock was still down about 18% year-to-date, making it the only one among the seven tech giants to have posted negative earnings this year. Against the backdrop of pressure on its core automotive business, the marginal impact of Robotaxi expansion data on stock prices has been significantly amplified. Regarding this surge, Wall Street is sharply divided between bulls and bears. The target price ranged from $24.86 to $600, with a difference of more than 23 times between the high and low, reflecting that the market has yet to reach a consensus on whether Tesla is an automaker or an AI platform, and the Cybercab fleet data is exactly the answer both bulls and bears are seeking.

Tigress Financial reiterated its Buy rating with a target price of $550. The firm lists Cybercab autonomous taxis as one of its five major growth drivers, believing that together with FSD subscriptions, Optimus robotics, energy business, and SpaceX, they form a physical AI growth flywheel supporting Tesla's "accelerated growth and long-term shareholder value creation."

Wedbush takes a more aggressive stance, with a target price of $600, the highest on Wall Street. The firm believes the autonomous driving and AI business is worth at least $1 trillion, and Tesla's market value is expected to reach $2 trillion or even $3 trillion within a year or two. 

Additionally, RBC reiterated a buy with a target price of $480; Stifel maintained a buy rating with a target price of $491; Piper Sandler and Cantor Fitzgerald both maintained an overweight stance. Bulls generally view Robotaxi as the core lever for Tesla to shift from automaker valuation to platform valuation.

Market Insight:

The continued expansion of the unsupervised fleet is the core KPI for tracking Tesla's autonomous driving business in the second half of the year; large-scale deployment rather than just a few vehicles on the road is the trigger for valuation repricing. In its segment valuation, the Robotaxi business contributes $120 per share, making it the second largest value source after network services. Tesla is expected to expand its Robotaxi fleet to 1,000 vehicles by the end of 2026 and reach 1 million vehicles by 2035.