AUD/USD: RBA hike expectations support pair – Commerzbank

Commerzbank strategists note AUD/USD held at 0.7200 on Friday and gained modestly over the week as markets price further Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) tightening. Overnight index swaps imply a high probability of a third consecutive 25 bp hike to 4.35% and additional tightening by year-end. They attribute this to inflation staying above target, driven by fuel costs and resilient domestic demand.

Market leans to further RBA tightening

"AUD/USD was unchanged at 0.7200 last Friday but gained 50 pips last week."

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"The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets tomorrow."

"The OIS market is pricing in a 74% chance of a third consecutive 25bp hike to 4.35%."

"They are pricing in a total hike of 64bp by year-end."

"The main reason is due to elevated inflation, which is expected to stay above the 2-3% target band, driven by higher fuel costs and resilient domestic demand."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

РЫНОЧНЫЕ КОТИРОВКИ

Название / Символ
График
% Изменение / Цена
GBPUSD
Изменение за 1 д.
-0.55%
1.33545
EURUSD
Изменение за 1 д.
-0.45%
1.11688
USDJPY
Изменение за 1 д.
+0.31%
158.661
AUDUSD
Изменение за 1 д.
-0.68%
0.68654