WTI rises above $93.00 after Trump rejects Iran peace deal

WTI price edges higher to near $93.05 in Monday’s early European session.
Trump rejected the Iran peace deal but said that he expected US negotiators to engage in more talks this week.
Traders await the EIA crude oil inventories data on Wednesday.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $93.05 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. WTI rises following US President Donald Trump’s rejection of an Iranian peace deal. The proposal was intended to end the US-Iran conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Análisis de TMGM: noticias de mercados financieros, calendario económico e información del mercado

On Sunday, US President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal ‌to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, claiming Tehran was desperate to make a deal, per Reuters. Trump said that he expects talks with Iran to resume this week, though Iran shows no sign of watering down its proposals.

Iran stated that it’s awaiting a definitive US response to a seven-day proposal for reopening the strait and other demands it has put on the table and won’t soften its conditions. Elsewhere, Saudi-backed coalition forces in Yemen said air defenses intercepted two drones launched by the Houthis toward Riyadh, as well as a ballistic missile targeting the southern border area of Khamis Mushait.

"Geopolitical risks remain elevated, as the Houthis and Iran continued their attacks on Saudi Arabia, leaving regional supply flows vulnerable," said ANZ analysts.

Traders brace for the American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly data later on Tuesday. A larger-than-expected crude oil inventory draw indicates stronger demand and could lift the WTI price, while a bigger build than estimated signals weaker demand or excess supply, which might undermine the WTI price.

Oil gains deepen pressure on global rates and inflation

Analysts at MUFG/BTMU warn that “oil is adding another layer of pressure to the rates story,” as the latest move higher in crude prices feeds into bond market dynamics. They highlight that “renewed geopolitical risks in the Middle East are occurring against an already tight oil-market backdrop, raising concerns over both supply and inflation,” reinforcing the upside risks to global rate expectations.

Technical Analysis: WTI holds a mildly bullish outlook in the near term

In the daily chart, the near-term bias of WTI US Oil is mildly bullish as price holds above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), keeping the broader uptrend supported despite the recent pullback from the $100 area. The Bollinger middle band now sits just above spot as immediate resistance, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 53.06 has eased from prior overbought readings, hinting at consolidative rather than aggressive upside momentum in the short term.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the Bollinger middle band near $93.55, followed by the upper Bollinger Band around $100.90, which guards the recent cycle highs. On the downside, intraday support is seen at the current pivot region around $92.80, with stronger structural demand emerging at the lower Bollinger Band at $86.24 and then the 100-day SMA at $84.95, where buyers would be expected to defend the medium-term bullish structure on deeper declines.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

WTI Oil FAQs

What is WTI Oil?

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

Siguiente artículo