GBP/USD Price Forecast: Picks up above 1.3500 amid generalised US Dollar weakness
- British Pound picks up above 1.3500 against the US Dollar, after bouncing off lows at 1.3474 .
- The US Dollar struggles on Friday as a run of soft inflation data has pushed back hopes of immediate Fed rate hikes.
- Later today, the US Retail Sales and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index data will provide further insight about the US economic outlook
The British Pound (GBP) pares losses against a weaker US Dollar (USD) on Friday, as a run of soft US inflation figures and growing signs of labour market deterioration have cast doubt about the odds for an immediate Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike. The GBP/USD has returned to the 1.3520 area from Thursday’s lows at 1.3474, inching towards a key resistance around 1.3550.
The focus on Friday is on the US Retail Sales, which are expected to show a 0.1% uptick in July, after a 0.2% gain in June, alongside the University of Michigan survey, which is foreseen to be little changed in August.
FX Strategists at ING state that these are "second-tier releases" that would "likely need to deliver significant surprises to trigger a meaningful dollar reaction," reinforcing the sense that, absent a major data shock, the Dollar is unlikely to break decisively from its current, relatively stable trading pattern.
Technical Analysis: Key resistance is at the 1.3550 area
GBP/USD trades at 1.3520 at the time of writing, trapped within the weekly trading range, with key resistance area around 1.3550. Momentum indicators show an incipient bullish traction with the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) above 60, yet with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator flat near the zero line, which suggests that the move is far from impulsive.
Pound bulls would need to confirm above the July 15 and August 12 highs, around 1.3550, to resume their broader bullish trend, aiming for a retest of the early May highs in the mid-range of the 1.3600s.
Downside attempts, on the other hand, have been contained at Thursday's low of 1.3474, ahead of the previous week's trading bottom, just above 1.3400. Further down, there is no clear support until the July 27 low, at 1.3273.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.20% | -0.26% | -0.25% | -0.28% | -0.16% | -0.44% | -0.09% | |
| EUR | 0.20% | -0.06% | -0.06% | -0.11% | 0.05% | -0.24% | 0.11% | |
| GBP | 0.26% | 0.06% | 0.02% | -0.05% | 0.11% | -0.16% | 0.18% | |
| JPY | 0.25% | 0.06% | -0.02% | -0.01% | 0.09% | -0.20% | 0.18% | |
| CAD | 0.28% | 0.11% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.11% | -0.16% | 0.20% | |
| AUD | 0.16% | -0.05% | -0.11% | -0.09% | -0.11% | -0.28% | 0.09% | |
| NZD | 0.44% | 0.24% | 0.16% | 0.20% | 0.16% | 0.28% | 0.38% | |
| CHF | 0.09% | -0.11% | -0.18% | -0.18% | -0.20% | -0.09% | -0.38% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
