AUD/USD Price Forecast: Bulls eye breakout above 100-SMA resistance as pair holds above 0.7000

• The 100-day SMA presents key resistance as AUD/USD struggles to extend modest gains made during the Asian session.
• Expectations of a Fed rate rise and geopolitical uncertainty support the USD, limiting further gains in the pair.
• With Wednesday’s FOMC decision approaching, hawkish RBA expectations lend support to the Australian Dollar.

Above the psychologically significant 0.7000 level, AUD/USD continues to warrant caution from bearish traders ahead of important economic releases and central bank events. The pair has again met resistance near the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), surrendering some of Tuesday’s modest Asian-session advance towards the one-month high reached the previous day.

Wednesday brings Australia’s monthly consumer inflation data, followed by the closely watched FOMC policy announcement. With the US Federal Reserve (Fed) expected to leave interest rates on hold at the conclusion of its two-day meeting, attention is likely to centre on the policy statement and remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the subsequent press conference. Thursday’s US releases, the Advance Q3 GDP report and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, will offer further indications of the likely course of Fed policy. That outlook will, in turn, shape the US Dollar (USD) and give AUD/USD a fresh catalyst.

For now, the dollar is supported by geopolitical uncertainty and an increasingly widely held view that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs in December, as high energy prices fuel inflation concerns. The USD Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against a basket of currencies, is advancing for a third consecutive day, restricting AUD/USD’s upside. Expectations of a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), however, provide support for the Aussie and contain its losses. A decisive break below the round 0.7000 level would therefore be needed before concluding that the recent rebound from a multi-month low has lost momentum.

Technically, the 100-day SMA continues to constrain spot prices, which are testing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7025. The broader outlook consequently remains fragile, even though momentum indicators are mildly positive. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 51 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) rising above zero, the signals point to a tentative recovery rather than a decisive bullish reversal while AUD/USD trades below that technical barrier. A daily close above this resistance cluster would nevertheless clear a path to the 50% retracement at 0.7065, followed by the 61.8% level at 0.7105. Further out, the 78.6% retracement at 0.7162 presents a stronger medium-term ceiling.

Initial downside support lies near 0.6976 at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, followed by the structural low around 0.6895. A breach of that low would re-establish the broader bearish trend and invalidate the recent improvement in momentum.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Daily AUD/USD chart