156.00 area: USD/JPY Price Forecast flags rebound risk on hammer signal

A hammer candle near support points to a possible USD/JPY rebound.
Despite reversal signals, sellers retain the advantage as RSI sits below neutral.
156.08 is the downside trigger for 155.00; recovery attempts face a ceiling at 157.57.

USD/JPY trades at 156.85. A ‘hammer candle pattern’ is taking shape as the pair holds steady on the day despite subdued market sentiment. Over the week, however, USD/JPY fell more than 0.74%, leaving the Japanese Yen higher.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Range-Bound Technical Picture

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Neither buyers nor sellers have decisively broken the immediate support and resistance boundaries. USD/JPY remains confined to the 156.00-159.00 range, a span of 300-pip, with price action pointing to further sideways trading.

Sellers are gaining strength as momentum turns bearish. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped below its neutral threshold of 50.

The downside therefore remains the path of least resistance, with initial support at the psychological 156.50 level. Next comes 156.08, the daily low recorded on 23 October, followed by the 155.00 mark. A break below that level would bring the 8 September swing low of 152.89 into view.

At 157.57, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) provides the first resistance for USD/JPY. Further gains would put the 100-day SMA at 158.50 in focus, ahead of the 200-day SMA at 159.35.

USD/JPY Daily Price Chart

Japanese Yen: Weekly Currency Performance

Against the US Dollar, the Japanese Yen recorded its strongest performance this week. The table below details the weekly percentage changes in the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the major currencies listed.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.15%	-0.46%	-0.77%	-0.81%	-1.12%	-0.74%	-0.14%
EUR	0.15%		-0.31%	-0.56%	-0.61%	-0.88%	-0.58%	0.03%
GBP	0.46%	0.31%		-0.25%	-0.30%	-0.56%	-0.26%	0.41%
JPY	0.77%	0.56%	0.25%		-0.05%	-0.35%	0.02%	0.75%
CAD	0.81%	0.61%	0.30%	0.05%		-0.29%	0.09%	0.71%
AUD	1.12%	0.88%	0.56%	0.35%	0.29%		0.30%	0.94%
NZD	0.74%	0.58%	0.26%	-0.02%	-0.09%	-0.30%		0.66%
CHF	0.14%	-0.03%	-0.41%	-0.75%	-0.71%	-0.94%	-0.66%

Percentage movements between major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. To read JPY (base)/USD (quote), for example, choose the Japanese Yen on the left and follow that row across to the US Dollar. The intersecting cell gives the percentage change.