Around 0.8315: USD/CHF Price Forecast as Bears Test Support at Previous Highs

0,8337 marks the four-week high from which USD/CHF is retreating. Support in the 0.8310-0.8315 zone is now being tested.
Expectations of a December Fed rate hike are likely to cushion US Dollar declines.
Technical indicators point to a modest pullback from overbought territory.

A 1.7% advance over the previous two days drove intraday momentum indicators into overbought territory. On Thursday, the US Dollar (USD) is giving back some of those gains against the Swiss Franc (CHF), recording moderate losses. Having retreated from one-month highs near 0.8340, USD/CHF trades at 0.8320 and is testing support at the previous highs between 0.8310 and 0.8315.

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Further Dollar losses are nevertheless expected to be limited. Tuesday's elevated US consumer inflation readings, together with last week's robust employment report, have opened the door to another Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate increase in December.

That outlook has received backing from Fed officials, some of whom may reaffirm their position later on Thursday. Earlier this week, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly voiced concerns over persistent inflation pressures. New York Fed President John Williams has already signalled a further rate increase before year-end and is also expected to speak later in the day. Against this backdrop, a substantial US Dollar reversal is difficult to envisage.

Technical Analysis: Modest Retreat From Overbought Territory

Resistance at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the October-November rally halted buyers. The pair is now retreating from oversold levels, although declines are likely to attract buying interest. At the current USD/CHF price of 0.8322, the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) sits around 67, remaining near overbought territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains positive. Together, these indicators suggest buying pressure persists despite signs of slowing upside momentum.

Sellers have yet to force a break below the support zone identified above 0.8310. A move beneath it would bring the November 10 high near 0.8270 into focus as the next relevant target, though that level appears distant for today's session. Conversely, a confirmed break above the Fibonacci retracement at 0.8337 would put the key resistance at 0.8395, the October 14 high, in view.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Today's US Dollar Performance

The US Dollar (USD) recorded its strongest performance against the Australian Dollar today. Its percentage changes against the major currencies listed are set out below.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.03%	0.00%	-0.11%	0.02%	0.34%	0.09%	-0.11%
EUR	0.03%		0.04%	-0.07%	0.04%	0.38%	0.10%	-0.09%
GBP	-0.01%	-0.04%		-0.11%	0.04%	0.34%	0.05%	-0.13%
JPY	0.11%	0.07%	0.11%		0.12%	0.45%	0.18%	-0.00%
CAD	-0.02%	-0.04%	-0.04%	-0.12%		0.33%	0.06%	-0.13%
AUD	-0.34%	-0.38%	-0.34%	-0.45%	-0.33%		-0.25%	-0.45%
NZD	-0.09%	-0.10%	-0.05%	-0.18%	-0.06%	0.25%		-0.17%
CHF	0.11%	0.09%	0.13%	0.00%	0.13%	0.45%	0.17%

Percentage movements between major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, choosing the US Dollar on the left and following that row across to the Japanese Yen gives the percentage change for USD (base)/JPY (quote).