$92 breached: Solana price forecast as SOL slides and downside risk builds

• Below $92 on Wednesday, Solana continues its correction. Its decline so far this week exceeds 3.5%.
• SOL's rebound remains constrained by subdued ETF demand, a build-up in short positions and increasingly heated market conditions.
• Further losses remain a risk as the technical picture weakens, leaving SOL exposed to a sharper correction.

Below $92, Solana (SOL) remains under pressure on Wednesday. Losses so far this week exceed 3.5%. Recovery attempts face subdued demand for US-listed spot Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs), growing short positions and overheated market conditions, all of which weigh on sentiment. The weakening technical picture also signals further downside risk, leaving SOL exposed to a deeper correction.

Solana recovery constrained by weaker metrics

More than 3.5% lower so far this week, Solana slipped below $92 on Wednesday. The move points towards a sixth consecutive weekly decline since late September.

Following last week's largest weekly withdrawals since launch, SOL spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen little activity so far this week, according to SoSoValue. The figures suggest meaningful institutional demand for the token is absent. With demand subdued, the funds offer no buffer against SOL's falling price.

A reading of 0.92 on Wednesday puts CoinGlass' SOL long-to-short ratio close to its lowest level in over a month. In derivatives markets, a ratio below one signals bearish sentiment, with traders positioning for a decline in asset prices.

Caution is also evident in CryptoQuant's summary data. Large whale orders feature in both SOL spot and futures markets, where selling dominates. The spot market is also showing signs of overheating. Together, these readings point to a cautious, bearish bias among Solana traders that restricts the recovery.

$91.26: Solana technical outlook shows fading bullish strength

At $91.26 on Wednesday, Solana retains a bearish near-term bias below its key exponential moving averages (EMAs). Overhead resistance is layered at the 50-day EMA of $102.78, the 100-day EMA of $99.61 and the 200-day EMA of $98.39. This positioning suggests the recent decline remains intact. 

Weak momentum readings reinforce the downward pressure, even as market conditions begin to appear stretched. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 26 in oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains firmly below zero.

Any recovery first faces the horizontal resistance around $97.76. Above that sit the 200-day EMA at $98.39 and the 100-day EMA at $99.61. The 50-day EMA at $102.78 presents a stronger barrier before the higher horizontal resistance at $122.76.

For downside reference, the current price area comes first. The earlier rising trendline now points back towards the break zone around $88.80, followed by more substantial horizontal support near $78.35. Buyers would be expected to show greater interest there if losses deepen.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)